Goldman analysts led by Lizzie Dove examined how different segments within travel and leisure reacted to, and ultimately recovered from, the 2008-09 recession. Her analysis offers a valuable framework for identifying where consumer stress tends to appear first inside the travel space and whether today's warning signs in a K-shaped, bifurcated consumer landscape warrant closer scrutiny.

Buried in the middle of Dove's note on the cruise industry is an infographic showing that the downturn in the cruise industry tends to be late-cycle, whereas pullbacks in gambling, airlines, and hotels typically materialize much earlier - and right before the cycle begins to turn down.

Dove pointed back to the GFC crisis, where early in the downturn Vegas and airlines cracked first:

Then hotel demand dried up in mid-cycle:

• US RevPAR drops mid- to late-2008

Followed by the late-cycle downturn in the cruise industry:

So there was a full 18 to 24 months lag versus the late-cycle cruise downturn and the early-cycle pullback in Vegas and airlines.

Why highlight this consumer behavior right now?

Because the current K-shaped recovery and bifurcated spending environment are flashing early warning signs. Las Vegas trends are already pointing lower, yet airlines are still holding up, and baby boomers continue booking Caribbean cruise-line trips.

Track these consumer trends through early 2026 to see whether weakness spreads more broadly across the travel industry. If airline demand begins to fall, it will provide a much clearer indication that economic softness is widening. And if that's the case, Powell better be open to more rate cuts.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already communicated that tailwinds for working-class consumers will begin to materialize sometime in the first quarter.