Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Oil prices jumped in early Asian trade on Friday morning as markets responded to renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most significant oil export hubs, triggered renewed fears of supply disruptions.

At the time of writing, WTI had risen 2.71% to $60.30...

The attacks damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members aboard the vessel, Russian regional authorities confirmed.

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles.

The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”

"The intensity of these attacks has increased, it's much more often. Eventually they could hit something that causes lasting disruption," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.

If Ukraine continues to press its deep-strike campaign and Russia faces rolling or compounding infrastructure losses, the supply risk to global oil markets could rise meaningfully.

Russian oil supply is being further suppressed by renewed U.S. sanctions, most notably new restrictions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prohibiting transactions with the companies as Washington increases pressure on Moscow.

The broader oil market outlook, however, remains bearish, with U.S. crude inventories rising and multiple warnings of a severe glut in 2026.