Authored by Andrew Corbley via AntiWar.com,

A Ukrainian MP recently made an unsubstantiated claim that there were 400,000 open and ongoing cases of desertion from the Ukrainian military since the invasion by the Russian Federation in 2022. It may have been hyperbole, or they may have had a source in the judiciary.

However, the General Prosecutor’s office wrote to the New Voice of Ukraine in early November that 310,000 criminal cases related to unauthorized absence from a military unit or place of service (AWOL) and desertion are currently registered, 162,000 of which came just this year. There have been over 21,000 desertions in October 2025 alone, claims journalist and former lawmaker Ihor Lutsenko – now commander of a Ukrainian drone unit.

"This is a record. A very bad record. Every two minutes, someone runs away from our army. By the time you finish reading this post, another soldier will have put on skis. Ukraine will be weaker by one defender, and the enemy will become stronger by one," he wrote, according to the New Voice. He stressed that these are just official figures, and that the real number is only likely to be higher.

Suddenly, the widely dismissed total of 400,000 doesn’t seem impossible, and if a Ukrainian soldier downs his tools every 2 minutes, it leaves quite a lot of time for 400,000 to be reached by the end of the year.

The news comes as a 28-point plan for a lasting peace (later condensed to 19 points) in Ukraine was recently proposed by the Trump Administration in an effort to capitalize on talks with Vladimir Putin held during a summit in Alaska, and to bring the Ukrainians back to the table. Both Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have admitted that within the proposed plan points lies the framework discussed between the leaders in Anchorage without actually endorsing it. Both also acknowledged the "long pause" between the summit and the completion of this new document.

On the other hand, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev told Axios, that published a full version of the agreement last Thursday, that he was "optimistic" and that "we feel the Russian position is really being heard".

Military analysts skeptical of the Ukrainian army’s ability to withstand Russia for much longer have said that Russia will never agree to the US plan; they apparently include existing deal-breakers, and new demands including that Russia and Ukraine must implement tolerance and anti-racism education programs towards other nations and ethnic groups. The plan would give Ukraine a security guarantee akin to NATO membership, while also barring through constitutional amendment an attempt by Ukraine to join NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could visit Trump at the White House in the next few days "to complete final steps and make a deal," according to Ukraine’s national security chief. Meanwhile, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll was recently in talks with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi.

One of the initial 28 points states that the Ukrainian armed forces must be limited to 600,000 soldiers, and Axios claimed the current strength to be 800,000, citing official sources. Ukrainian war correspondent Yuri Butusov put the number of Ukrainian war dead at 70,000 at the end of 2024 based on public notifications to next of kin. Conflicts of a similar nature to this have produced a 1-3 wounded-killed ratio, so it’s reasonable to assume some 300,000 killed and wounded since the start of the war.

If a number greater than 310,000 and lower than 400,000 have already fled, and 300,000 have become casualties, the idea that Ukraine maintains an 800,000-man army beggar's belief.