The Pentagon's chief strategist is heading to NATO this week to spell out what many European capitals have been quietly dreading: the future U.S. military posture in Europe is under review - likely up for downsizing, and even Europe's US-supplied nuclear umbrella could be up for review and negotiations.

Defense Department policy chief Elbridge Colby will represent Washington at Thursday's NATO ministerial, filling in for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is sitting out this round. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to lead the US side. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Colby will address among other things "capabilities that may need to be ultimately transitioned out of Europe."

Colby has long argued that NATO allies must assume the primary responsibility for their own defense, which aligns with President Trump's priorities - namely that Europe can no longer rely on open-ended American security guarantees, also as Washington aligns toward dominance in the Western hemisphere (Donroe Doctrine).

Much of America's military presence may soon be on the move. Speaking before a pre-conference audience, US envoy Whitaker already signaled contention. "I completely reject everything I just heard" he said, as Washington is "not trying to dismantle NATO," but that European allies must take more responsibility.

Europe must grow up, he explained. "When your kids are young, they’re dependent on you. But eventually you expect them to get a job. And so to me, that’s where we are. We still love them. You’re still allies," Amb. Whitaker said.

While praising allies' willingness boost military spending to 5%, he assessed that they are being too sluggish in turning this extra defense investment and expenditure into actual military capabilities.

"One of the things that I’ve noticed in my time here in Europe is there is a lot of discussion and not a lot of action," he emphasized.

He was responding to a fresh annual report produced by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), scheduled formally to take place February 13-15, which stated that "for decades, Europe thrived under an American security umbrella that allowed it to prioritize integration and prosperity over hard power. That era has ended."

Just days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spelled out that Moscow has "no intention of attacking Europe" as there is "no reason to do so" - but that the West could expect in the face of any aggression against Russian territory or its interests "a full-fledged military response."

Wrecking-ball politics the order of the day...

On the nuclear umbrella issue, Finland's defense minister told AFP Tuesday that while he welcomes open European dialogue on a stronger regional nuclear deterrence, he admitted it is not realistic "at this point" to replace American nukes.

Defense chief Antti Hakkanen acknowledged, "We fully trust ... that the US is fully committed to the nuclear deterrence in NATO" - adding that European countries were "taking the leading role in conventional defense."