特朗普暂缓扣押伊朗油轮的选项,担心油价大幅上涨。
Trump Holds Off On Option To Seize Iranian Tankers, Fearing Sharp Oil Rise

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trump-holds-option-seize-iranian-tankers-fears-sharp-oil-rise

美国有潜力通过扣押参与运输伊朗石油的油轮来显著加大对伊朗的压力,这种策略最近曾对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯使用过。特朗普政府已经讨论过这一选项——超过20艘油轮已被制裁——但目前正在克制。 担忧集中在伊朗可能采取的报复行动上,这可能包括扣押美国盟友的油轮或扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的交通,该海峡是重要的石油运输路线。此类行动可能导致全球油价急剧上涨,给白宫带来政治挑战。 目前,美国正在优先进行由阿曼促成的与伊朗的间接谈判,并考虑对地区盟友以色列的影响。尽管美国提出要求,伊朗坚持其导弹计划“不可谈判”,但仍愿意在解除制裁的 مقابل 讨论核限制。局势依然紧张,扣押油轮代表着一个主要的升级点。

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原文

Another big piece of leverage that Washington is holding over Tehran is the potential seizure of Iranian oil tankers. The US intercepting and boarding tankers on the high seas has been a trend related to Venezuela of late, as well as Russia's so-called dark fleet, ratcheting tensions with Moscow.

But President Trump is said to be holding off for now when it comes to the Iranians, as the process of indirect negotiations based in Oman plays out, also as Israel's Netanyahu is received at the White House on Wednesday.

Fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal indicates "Trump administration officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil but have held off, concerned about Tehran’s near-certain retaliation and the impact on global oil markets, U.S. officials said."

File image via Strauss Center

But there have been US naval interdictions involving Iranian energy related to the Venezuela blockade: "The U.S. has seized several ships that have carried Iranian oil as part of its two-month-old blockade of sanctioned tankers serving Venezuela," continues WSJ. "The tankers, which make up the so-called shadow fleet, help transport illicit oil from numerous sanctioned countries to China and other buyers."

The report notes that "A move by the U.S. to block other sanctioned ships from loading oil in Iran would squeeze Tehran's main source of revenue, expanding the aggressive strategy the White House put in place in December in the Caribbean."

So there remains this big card to play, but Trump is so far hesitant on concerns of rapidly driving up the price of oil.

Sanctions have been slapped on Iranian tankers, but action has yet to follow, as WSJ explains further:

But the option of stopping tankers, one of several the White House has been debating to coerce Tehran to reach a deal restricting its nuclear program, faces many obstacles, some of the officials said.

Iran is likely to respond to a stepped-up U.S. crackdown by seizing tankers carrying oil from U.S. allies in the region or even by mining the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow exit from the Persian Gulf through which as much as 25% of the world’s petroleum supply passes. Either move is likely to drive up oil prices sharply, risking a political firestorm for the White House.

More than 20 ships that transport Iranian oil have been sanctioned by the Treasury Department this year, making them possible seizure targets, officials say.

This would likely be a next big step of escalation Washington has in its pocket, before any potential US military (or Israeli) action targeting Tehran.

Despite the recent weeks of alarming Iran-related headlines, oil prices have by and large not reacted dramatically, given reports that Trump favors negotiated settlement to Iran's nuclear program.

Vice President JD Vance has also clarified the ball is in Iran's court, and that talks are still ongoing:

Iran meanwhile has made clear that its missile program is not up for negotiation, despite Washington's insistence that this be on the table.

Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, reiterated Wednesday that missile capabilities are "non-negotiable" but that Tehran is open to nuclear limits in exchange for sanctions relief.

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