美国在2025年几乎没有就业增长。
U.S. had almost no job growth in 2025

原始链接: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/january-jobs-revisions-trump-rcna258398

对美国劳动力数据的最新修正显示,就业增长明显低于最初报告。初步数据显示2025年新增就业岗位58.4万个,但劳工统计局现在报告仅为18.1万个——自2020年以来新增就业岗位最少的一年。这与2024年新增的146万个就业岗位形成鲜明对比。 然而,仍有一线希望:2026年的招聘正在回升,上个月新增就业岗位13万个,超出预期,尤其是在医疗保健和建筑行业。失业率也降至4.3%。 这些修正对当前政府提出了挑战,其在经济方面的支持率正在下降。制造业是重点关注领域,变化不大,但略有增长。专家认为,如此大幅的修正是由于疫情后劳动力市场变化和调查回复率造成的,而且美联储已经预计到之前的数字被高估。市场反应表明存在不确定性,预计在7月之前不会降息。

## 美国就业增长停滞,数据引发质疑 最新报告显示,美国在2025年几乎没有就业增长,修正数据显示新增就业岗位远低于此前估计。这一年可能成为自2020年以来就业最糟糕的一年。虽然2026年1月意外增加了13万个就业岗位——超出预期——但这与修正后的2025年数据形成了鲜明对比。 讨论的中心是数据的可靠性,一些人认为过去报告中可能存在政治影响。人们对就业质量表示担忧,指出医疗保健行业占据主导地位,且往往伴随着高昂的行政成本。 许多评论员指出更广泛的经济指标,例如对消费品的需求停滞(以多年来稀缺的任天堂Switch现在容易获得为例)以及向“赌场经济”的转变,这种转变由人工智能和其他波动性行业的投机行为推动。另一些人强调了失业统计方面的问题,质疑其是否准确反映了就业不足和失去工作积极性的劳动者。最终,这些数据引发了关于美国经济真实状况以及当前趋势是否预示着滞胀的辩论。
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原文

The U.S. economy experienced almost zero job growth in 2025, according to revised federal data. On a more encouraging note: hiring has picked up in 2026.

Preliminary data had indicated that the U.S. economy added 584,000 jobs last year. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised that number after it received additional state data, and found that the labor market had added 181,000 jobs in all of 2025.

This is far fewer than the 1.46 million jobs that were added in 2024.

One bright spot was last month, when hiring increased by 130,000 roles. This was significantly more than the 55,000 additions that had been expected by economists.

“Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs,” BLS said in a statement

Wednesday’s reports further complicate the task for President Donald Trump and Republicans as they attempt to craft an economic narrative going into the 2026 midterm elections. Polls show that the president’s approval rating on the economy has declined, while consumer sentiment has been poor, particularly around the jobs market.

Manufacturing, a key industry targeted for growth by the Trump administration, was among the industries that saw “little change” in January, the agency said. Still, factory jobs rose 5,000 in the month, for their first increase since January 2024. Analysts expected a contraction.

Job fair.
Job seekers in Boone, N.C., in 2025.Allison Joyce / Bloomberg via Getty Images file

The health care sector was the largest contributor to job gains in January, adding a net 137,000 jobs. Over the course of the last year, that sector has been the driving force behind job gains.

The leisure and hospitality sector added only 1,000 jobs in January, which many economists have described in recent months as something that would be a red flag given how reliant the industry is on consumer spending.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3% in January.

Still, Wednesday’s report also shows that not nearly as many jobs were added in 2025 as thought and last year will go down as the worst year for hiring since 2020, or since 2003 outside of a recession.

Additionally, the BLS subtracted 862,000 jobs from March 2024 through March 2025 as part of its annual revisions.

For 2025, Wednesday’s revisions show that the labor market contracted during four months — January, June, August and October. Previously, data showed a net loss of jobs in only three months.

The average revisions to U.S. jobs data have been steeper in the years since 2020 than they were before the pandemic. Economists and analysts largely attribute this to a shift in labor market dynamics and survey response rates.

The massive revisions down were not entirely unexpected, however. BLS previously projected a downward revision of 911,000 for 2024-2025.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said recently that last year’s hiring numbers were likely too rosy.

“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000, so that would be negative 20,000 per month,” Powell said in a Dec. 10 press conference.

“I think you can say that the labor market has continued to cool gradually, maybe just a touch more gradually than we thought,” he continued.

For investors, Wednesday’s report could indicate that the labor market is finding its footing and stabilizing but comes after three straight months of rocky numbers.

Given that the report still lacks the crystal-clear clarity that investors and the Fed are seeking, Treasury bonds fell in early trading Wednesday and their yields rose. The futures markets indicated that traders don’t see much of a chance of a rate cut until July at the earliest.

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