By Michael Every of Rabobank

US payrolls stronger, US yields up, stocks flat as anything hit by AI was too, oil sideways, and USD/JPY at 153 vs 159 a few days ago. Fed-speak was all over the place. Schmid said restrictive rates are needed to cool inflation. Miran said there’s still a variety of reasons to cut rates. Hammack said the labor market is finding a healthy balance and rates should stay on hold. And as they all speak, 2026’s book of changes unfolds.

Von der Leyen clashed with France and Germany over the EU’s core climate law, the latter pair backing CEOs in Antwerp demanding climate regulations are eased to halt rapid deindustrialisation (in the green space as well as in old industries). However, Paris and Berlin are attacking each other over that issue (i.e., who gets the subsidies).

The key informal leaders meeting in a Belgian castle today will see more clashes and breaches. The Euro defence lobby opposes the Commission's role in defence spending. There is no agreement on what ‘Made in Europe’ means, as the UK, outside the castle wall like King Arthur in The Holy Grail, argues it should be let in. VdL just attacked “unnecessary” national laws, mirroring some states’ views of EU laws. Her Commission will set an end-2026 deadline for the EU to integrate all its capital markets, or allow member states to do so at their own speed. The ECB is lobbying for a common EU corporate legal framework; and both the Bundesbank president and the FT editorial team put out missives for the mass issue of Eurobonds for “strategic autonomy.” EU markets don’t seem to be reacting to any of the above. Yes, this isn’t a crisis, as with Greece – but it is a crisis. The old regime of technocrats sees the world has changed – but can they do so?

The Trump-Netanyahu meeting ended with ‘Trump wants a deal’: but did anyone expect the headline: “We attack Friday”? Another US aircraft carrier is heading to the region, alongside other preparations for Iran to deal with. Indeed, when Trump says ‘deal’, that now seems to include ballistic missiles and terror proxies, both unacceptable to Tehran. The US is also considering acting vs tankers carrying Iranian oil, even if wary what that would do to energy prices.

Mirroring that, the Russian press is talking about Iranian oil being escorted to Cuba by the PLA Navy, and Russia’s shadow fleet by their navy, which would raise the stakes and risk a new Cuban crisis or its equivalent in Europe. The fact this is being discussed underlines how hard power now matters: sanctions, shmanctions, price cap, price shmap – can you physically interdict a ship? Can you resist any such measures being taken against your trade flows via military strength or the importance of what you export? That’s what strategic autonomy looks like.

The US energy secretary is to visit Venezuela to try to jump start oil production, seen as a Herculean task. That’s as the EPA will water down regulations so carbon isn’t a pollutant, marking another huge step towards environmental deregulation. Trump also signed an executive order to shift the Department of War to coal for its vast power demands: khaki certainly isn’t green.

The US House of Representatives voted to remove Trump’s Canada tariffs, cheering tariff opponents. However, only a handful of Republicans flipped, and Trump can veto it if it were to pass the Senate, which is unlikely. Conversely, the FAA head said Canada will certify US Gulfstream jets following sabres being rattled by Trump. At the same time, suggestions Trump wants to end the USMCA this summer, likely deepening bilateral trade relations with Mexico and weakening them with Canada, which greatly weakens Canada, cannot be dismissed.

Trump and Xi reportedly ‘agreed to roll back tariffs’ on one quick take: the actual news is they are to extend their trade truce for another year. If that’s the main outcome from their April meeting one wonders why it’s happening. (Which some may ask after the EU meeting too.)

There were announced changes to the US-India trade deal from the US side, following a backlash from Indian farmers – that does show tweaks can be made, as they already have elsewhere.

Indonesia will sign a US trade deal, and join Trump’s Board of Peace, next week. Will nickel flows will be involved given Indonesia dominates global supply and just announced it will be reducing output to force prices higher? (NB, Canada is full of nickel too but no longer produces much, “because markets.”)

In technology, the Chinese press notes how AI and delivery drones are pushing their logistics costs to new lows. SMIC said the chip industry is in “crisis mode” as output is sucked up by AI: it will respond with more localization. ByteDance is reportedly developing its own AI chip in conjunction with Samsung. US hyperscaler AI spending is now set to hit over $600 billion. And all this is happening as some sit and talk about how to boost competitiveness in a High Castle.

Then again, there are good arguments for moats and drawbridges: the Pentagon wants to include AI within its secure networks. “Would you like to play a game?” still send shivers down the spine of a child of the 80s, like ‘Skynet’ and ‘The Matrix’ may still do to others. But here we are. At the very least, the world of work around is going to be transformed, even if some are taking the blue pill and think it won’t impact them.

That’s as Anthropic, the makers of Claude --doing transformative things even for individuals and SMEs-- has publicly warned the program could be misused for "heinous crimes.” That’s following Anthropic’s safeguards research head quitting while warning, “I continuously find myself reckoning with our situation. The world is in peril. And not just from AI, or bioweapons, but from a whole series of interconnected crises unfolding in this very moment. We appear to be approaching a threshold where our wisdom must grow in equal measure to our capacity to affect the world, lest we face the consequences.”

He’s moving to the UK to “become invisible” for a period of time, adding: “I feel called to writing that addresses and engages fully with the place we find ourselves, and that places poetic truth alongside scientific truth as equally valid ways of knowing, both of which I believe have something essential to contribute when developing new technology.” How does one put poetry into ‘scientific’ GDP? By asking, “What is GDP *for*?”

Or look to the I Ching at the heart of The Man in the High Castle, a book set in a world where the West lost WW2. It says: “When flowing water… meets with obstacles on its path, a blockage in its journey, it pauses. It increases in volume and strength, filling up in front of the obstacle and eventually spilling past it... Do not turn and run, for there is nowhere worthwhile for you to go. Do not attempt to push ahead into the danger... emulate the example of the water: Pause and build up your strength until the obstacle no longer represents a blockage.” And what does that imply your GDP, or your markets, should look like?