可恢复与不可恢复的决策
Recoverable and Irrecoverable Decisions

原始链接: https://herbertlui.net/recoverable-and-irrecoverable-decisions/

为了克服决策焦虑,关注**可恢复性**,而不仅仅是可逆性。在行动前,确定*最坏的实际*结果,并诚实评估你是否能从中恢复。 如果完全恢复看起来不太可能,探索方法*使*决策更具可恢复性——通过预订、储备额外资金或最小化初始投资。本质上,减少潜在的损害。 这种方法很有价值,因为即使不可逆转的决定也可以被恢复;糟糕的发型会长回来,即使是商业冒险的失败也不会定义你。优先考虑可恢复性鼓励行动,这对于企业家和面临艰难选择的任何人来说都是一项关键技能。当你准备好应对潜在的负面影响时,你将为更广泛的积极结果敞开大门。

Hacker News 新闻 | 过去 | 评论 | 提问 | 展示 | 招聘 | 提交 登录 可恢复和不可恢复的决策 (herbertlui.net) 11 分,作者 herbertl,53 分钟前 | 隐藏 | 过去 | 收藏 | 2 条评论 Insanity 21 分钟前 [–] 在亚马逊常被描述为“单向和双向门决策”。贝佐斯关于此的视频:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxsdOQa_QkM。我认为这有时是一种有用的决策策略,主要是为了避免过度思考容易反转的决策。回复 pxx 15 分钟前 | 父评论 [–] 什么?如果你读过标题之后的内容,这篇文章表达的是不同的观点。> 传统的领导力建议是将决策视为可逆或不可逆的。然而,许多重要的、不可逆的决策是可以恢复的。回复 指南 | 常见问题 | 列表 | API | 安全 | 法律 | 申请 YC | 联系 搜索:
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原文

When you need to make an anxiety-inducing decision, ask yourself: What is the worst realistic outcome? Will you be able to recover from it?

Let’s say you want to make a product and sell it, and you need to invest in inventory. The manufacturer needs you to order $1,000 worth to meet their minimum. The worst outcome: you only sell to a few friends. Can you recover from spending nearly $1,000? If not, how do you put yourself in a position to recover from it? In other words, how can you make this decision more recoverable? 

Or, can you make an irrecoverable outcome less likely or drastic (by taking pre-orders, earning extra with a part-time job or freelancing, or selling some old devices or clothes you don’t use—amongst many other ideas)? 

Keep in mind: when you’re in a good position, you can win in all sorts of ways

Here’s a day-to-day example: A haircut is recoverable because it grows back. Yes, a bad haircut can feel mortifying, but it won’t be permanent. It’s still a decision—and for some, anxiety-inducing—but it’s one you will recover from.

Conventional leadership advice suggests looking at decisions as reversible or non-reversible. Many important, non-reversible, decisions are recoverable, though. The more recoverable a decision is, the more useful it is to bias for action.

Entrepreneurship involves the skill of making more decisions recoverable.

Thanks to my partner Bernice Liu for the idea.

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