While 'hard' data has been fading modestly in recent weeks, 'soft' survey data has bounced back but today we get a first glimpse at February's PMIs from S&P Global to see if that survey-based confidence is continuing.

It is not as both Manufacturing and Services PMIs dropped notably.,

Source: Bloomberg

Overall that dragged the US Composite PMI down to its lowest since April 2025 (and weaker than UK and Japan)...

"A combination of weakened demand, high prices, and adverse weather colluded to dampened business activity in February," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "resulting in the slowest expansion of output for ten months."

Customer demand growth has softened, with orders even falling in factories, curbing jobs growth to a crawl across both manufacturing and services.

The PMI data so far this year are indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.5%, signaling a marked cooling of the economy in the first quarter compared to the robust growth rates seen in the second half of last year.

Williamson notes that “companies are suggesting that at least some of this slowdown may prove temporary, partly as extreme weather passes, with business growth expectations rising sharply to the highest for just over a year in February. "

However, confidence remains subdued on the whole, as companies worry about the political environment and impact of policies such as tariffs, the latter once again blamed for widespread price rises, in turn hitting affordability and limiting sales growth for many businesses.