The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortage is already pressuring the margins of consumer electronics companies, disrupting product launches, and pushing up the prices of TVs and computers. The latest development is Valve's handheld gaming PC, which is reportedly out of stock in select regions as the memory crunch now filters into retail availability.
We have been leaning on institutional channel checks across the semis and hardware coverage universe to gain an insider's perspective on what's happening across the memory space and what to potentially expect in the quarters ahead.
The latest read comes from Goldman analysts led by Giuni Lee, following a discussion with SK Hynix, a critical supplier of HBM chips, on the implications of a very tight memory market.
Lee offered clients five key takeaways from her conversation with SK Hynix:
Memory pricing is likely to growth throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply,
Healthy inventory levels and strengthening supplier leverage are leading to increased discussions around longer term contracts,
The current tight conventional DRAM S/D could lead to more favorable terms for HBM business in 2027,
The 1c nm ramp in 2026 mainly for conventional DRAM, while for HBM mainly starting from 2027, and
Capex guidance and focus on DRAM/HBM investments are largely inline with GSe. We reiterate our Buy rating on Hynix
On the memory market, Lee delivered clients a detailed readout on current conditions:
Memory pricing growth likely throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply
Hynix thinks the current memory pricing uptrend could continue throughout this year driven by robust demand from AI customers. The company expects AI customers will continue to maintain sizable investment scale as they are making meaningful progress in their AI services. While the company acknowledged potential despeccing from PC/mobile customers could weigh on memory demand, it still expects upward pricing trajectory also led by limited supply growth. The company mentioned that the industry-wide limited clean room space is contributing to tight supply and favorable condition for memory pricing. The company sees low possibility of meaningful double-booking of memory orders, as customers are aware that memory capacity cannot be increased meaningfully in the short-term, hence they recognize double-booking will not lead to more allocation but rather drive up pricing further.
The rest of Lee's takeaways from her discussion with SK Hynix are available on the Marketdesk.ai portal for professional subscribers.
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