IBM暴跌,Anthropic最新更新挑战COBOL。
IBM Plunges After Anthropic's Latest Update Takes on COBOL

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ibm-plunges-after-anthropics-latest-update-takes-cobol

Anthropic的Claude现在正针对COBOL现代化改造,这是一个严重依赖IBM的领域,导致IBM股价大幅下跌。COBOL虽然驱动着关键基础设施,例如美国95%的ATM交易,但却面临着熟练开发人员数量减少和文档过时的困境。 Claude Code提供人工智能驱动的自动化,用于分析和实施COBOL现代化改造,使团队能够专注于战略和风险评估。这种方法使组织能够在不影响可靠性的前提下更新遗留系统。 市场反应强烈,将Claude的能力解读为对IBM有利可图的COBOL相关服务(编码和咨询)的直接威胁。这一事件引发了关于Anthropic的颠覆性更新是否有意或无意地通过市场反应为其运营提供资金,以及OpenAI是否会效仿的质疑。

## IBM股价因Anthropic的COBOL更新而下跌 IBM的股价近期暴跌,原因是Anthropic在利用人工智能分析和潜在迁移COBOL代码方面取得了进展。Hacker News上的讨论指出,银行继续依赖COBOL并非因为它在积极*开发*中,而是因为它具有稳定性和大量的现有代码——而能够维护它的人员有限。 虽然编写COBOL不是核心问题,但理解复杂、数十年前的代码库并避免系统中断才是。Anthropic的技术提供了分析这些系统和规划迁移的潜力,但评论员指出最大的障碍是组织性的——监管审批、测试以及修改关键系统相关的巨大风险。 几位用户指出,保护IBM的真正“护城河”不是COBOL代码本身,而是其管理这些复杂迁移的咨询服务。其他人认为这一消息并不令人惊讶,与金融评论员Matt Levine等人的类似观察相呼应。讨论还涉及大型机稳定性的挑战,以及COBOL由于其类似英语的结构,可能非常适合LLM分析。
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原文

After disrupting countless Software/SaaS/finance/real estate/broker sectors, Anthropic's Claude is now going after targeted companies. 

A little before 2pm ET, Bloomberg sent out a headline that Anthropic's Claude has found yet another skillset:

  • *ANTHROPIC SAYS CLAUDE CODE CAN AUTOMATE COBOL MODERNIZATION

A herd of panicked IBM longs flooded to the Claude blog to read more on what is happening. Here's what it found (excerpted): 

COBOL is everywhere. It handles an estimated 95% of ATM transactions in the US. Hundreds of billions of lines of COBOL run in production every day, powering critical systems in finance, airlines, and government.

Despite that, the number of people who understand it shrinks every year.

The developers who built these systems retired years ago, and the institutional knowledge they carried left with them. Production code has been modified repeatedly over decades, but the documentation hasn't kept up. Meanwhile, we aren't exactly minting replacements—COBOL is taught at only a handful of universities, and finding engineers who can read it gets harder every quarter.

Given these roadblocks, how can organizations modernize their systems without losing the reliability, availability, and data they’ve accumulated over decades? And without breaking anything?

* * * 

How AI changes COBOL modernization

AI excels at streamlining the tasks that once made COBOL modernization cost-prohibitive. With it, your team can focus on strategy, risk assessment, and business logic while AI automates the code analysis and implementation.

* * * 

Start your COBOL modernization

The approach outlined above works for COBOL systems of any size. Tools like Claude Code can automate much of the exploration and analysis work described, giving your team the comprehensive understanding they need to plan and execute migrations confidently.

Start with a single component or workflow that has clear boundaries and moderate complexity. Use AI to analyze and document it thoroughly, plan the modernization with your engineers, implement incrementally with testing at each step, and validate carefully.  This will build organizational confidence and surface adjustments needed for your systems.

In kneejerk reaction, IBM stock, already down sharply on the day, and tumbling 20% from its all time highs just earlier this month, plunged $15 to the lowest level since Liberation Day, briefly dipping below $230...

... as the market realized that it is the latest target of the Claude disruption train. You see, Common Business-Oriented Language (COBOL)  is a high-level, English-like compiled programming language developed specifically for business data processing, via IBM. As such, anything that disrupts this lucrative ecosystem created by IBM (code COBOL, then sell consultancy contracts to adjust the code which virtually nobody knows how to use), would immediately smash IBM stock... and that's precisely what happened. 

Which begs the question: after various Claude updates caused hundreds of billions in market cap damage in the past 3 weeks, is the company's strategy to keep rolling incremental disruption updates becoming Antrhopic's self-funding strategy. After all, if Dario Amodei had bought puts on IBM, and the dozens of companies that have plunge dmore than double digits in recent weeks, he would have made billions, certainly enough to fund his company for months if not years. 

And if not Anthropic, when will OpenAI - which needs capital much more badly than its enterprise-focused peer - do the same? 

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