By Thomas Kolbe

The ten-minute applause of delegates at the CDU party congress still echoed when the Federal Ministry of Finance spoiled the festive mood in Stuttgart. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s (SPD) department reported a nationwide collapse of corporate tax revenue by 79 percent in January 2026 compared to last year.

At the same time, revenue from assessed income tax fell by 14.2 percent, while wage tax revenue rose by 9.1 percent.

VAT revenue grew by two percent — a reflection of persistent inflationary tendencies in the country, to which the state itself contributes significantly through its taxation policies. While price increases may be slowed by continued economic weakness, cumulative inflation continues to weigh on consumers even if the annual rate declines. Inflation is always good for the state, which is why it persists.

Corporate tax burdens corporate profits at 15 percent plus a solidarity surcharge. Last year, revenue totaled roughly €40 billion, less than one percent of GDP. Even in 2025, revenue had fallen six percent, showing a long-term negative trend.

Its temporary collapse in January will likely have no immediate fiscal consequences. Corporate tax revenue is split — 50 percent to the federal government, 42 percent to the states, and eight percent to municipalities, which appear at least partially shielded at this tax level.

However, municipalities already suffered a fiscal blow last year, especially in the centers of the industrial crisis. Cities such as Wolfsburg and Stuttgart saw sharp declines in their key tax base, the trade tax.

It is undeniable: the situation is becoming serious, and the damage from political mismanagement is now visible. For the first time, fiscal effects appear in a country where policy had long relied on ever-growing tax revenues, postponing social issues with generous spending.

January’s alarming figures allow a troubling diagnosis: the companies that generate corporate tax revenue are largely from manufacturing — the classic industrial sectors of Germany’s automotive and chemical industries. Here, in what was once the pulsing heart of the German economy — source of much of the nation’s value creation — there must have been a first economic infarction last year.

The tax revenue decline cannot be explained otherwise. Last year was suspiciously quiet amid 24,000 corporate insolvencies, hundreds of thousands of lost industrial jobs, and ongoing capital flight from Germany’s regulatory and energy nightmare toward better locations.

The government’s response to this self-inflicted problem is to expand state activity, spinning the intervention spiral faster with ever-new debt to stabilize an industry that largely no longer exists.

Friedrich Merz acted knowingly last year when he secured a special fund with credit for coming years to temporarily stabilize the collapsing economic model. The hour was understood.

Yet now, despite billions flowing into the defense sector and green transformation projects, tax revenue still collapses — highlighting the dramatic state of the private sector. An economy that is largely unviable without perpetual subsidies has now become a problem for politics itself.

No matter how high the federal government’s economic straw fire burns, the Ministry of Finance’s numbers speak clearly. Germany’s economy, after years of restructuring under green transformation and the energy crisis, has suffered such heavy damage that it is now visible at the state level — confirming what practical experience has warned for years. The shift toward a green socialism has gone too far, productive forces are overextended, bureaucracy and the ever-expanding welfare state overstretched.

Germany faces difficult years ahead. It must negotiate how to proceed amid ever-scarcer public funds. The state quota now exceeds 50 percent and continues to rise under federal policy. The bureaucracy and welfare system expand five to six percent annually, demanding ever-greater contributions from society, further weakening productive forces — the poverty spiral accelerates.

A recalibration of the welfare state to match economic realities will soon be unavoidable. Until then, the illusion of prosperity is kept alive by credit.

What is to be expected now? The state will increasingly draw on citizens’ resources to close the growing budget gaps. The corporate tax collapse was likely no anomaly, and it will become ever more expensive to use sectors like defense to mask the collapse of German industry and protect the labor market.

Debates over raising inheritance tax, reintroducing wealth tax, and potential special levies on the rich last year were preparatory. Now, it is serious.

The dead-end German politics has led this country down is brittle. Beneath it yawns an abyss, now revealed in its full depth in Ministry of Finance numbers.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.