伊朗的巨大面积可视化,以及任何地面入侵意味着多年泥潭。
Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-irans-vast-size-why-any-ground-invasion-would-be-years-long-quagmire

伊朗是一个幅员辽阔的国家,其规模和复杂性常常被低估。人口超过9000万——是伊拉克人口的两倍以上——国土面积接近欧洲的一半(与阿拉斯加相当,或明显大于德克萨斯州),任何美国军事升级都将比之前的冲突更具挑战性。 伊朗-伊拉克战争(1980-1988年),一场残酷的僵局,导致可能高达一百万人的伤亡,证明了伊朗的韧性。新的冲突很容易引发民族教派紧张局势,可能类似于2003年伊拉克入侵后的混乱,尽管伊朗拥有更大的国家团结。 此外,地面入侵将需要艰苦的城市战,尤其是在像德黑兰这样的大都市(人口约1000万-1600万),其规模和密度与纽约市相当。库尔德地区的山地地形,美国可能试图在那里支持反德黑兰力量,将进一步使任何地面行动复杂化,使其缓慢而困难。了解伊朗的规模至关重要,因为历史表明那里的冲突将是旷日持久的、血腥的和极其复杂的。

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原文

Most Americans have little understanding or concept of Iran's size in terms of geography or population. The ethno-religious make-up of the sprawling Mideast/West Asian nation is also deeply important, given the US is already talking about arming and supporting some kind of Kurdish-led anti-Tehran ground operation. 

Suffice it to say, Iran's population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq's. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. All of this is crucial for attempting to visualize what American military escalation there might mean, given the Trump White House has not ruled out American boots on the ground amid the unfolding 'Operation Epic Fury'. Consider: the US spent two blood-soaked decades occupying Iraq (again, significantly smaller than the Islamic Republic). Russia has spent over four years on its military operation in Ukraine, and Iran dwarfs Ukraine in size.

And here's Iran's size overlaying the European continent.

Next: Size of Iran vs. Alaska (with the continental USA for scale). Imagine a war that covered some nearly one-third of the continental United States, and also imagine an outside force trying to pacify a population of 90 million within that vast geography. 

Iran and Alaska are similar in massive land expanse: 

  • Alaska: 1.723 million km² ≈ 665,000 mi² (about 17.4% of USA)

  • Iran: 1.648 million km² ≈ 636,300 mi² (about 16.7% of USA)

  • USA: 9.867 million km² ≈ 3,810,000 mi²

Another look: Iran is far bigger than Texas.

It is also significantly bigger than Iraq.

Importantly, the single deadliest Middle East war in the modern-ear was the Iran-Iraq war. From 1980 to1988 these enemies sharing a common border fought a ground and artillery war to stalemate. It was an utterly disastrous war of attrition, and at that time the United States actually covertly supported Iraq under Saddam Hussein in order to weaken Iran.

But Iran persisted through even that, which gives some idea of what it might be able to endure while facing a war for its very survival and existence with the US and Israel.

The number of casualties in the Iran-Iraq War ranges from 1,000,000 to twice that number. The number killed on both sides was perhaps 500,000, with Iran suffering the greatest losses. It is estimated that between 50,000 and 100,000 Kurds were killed by Iraqi forces during the series of campaigns that took place in 1988. —Britannica

TEHRAN city size: Comparable to New York City.

Any ground invasion necessitates exhausting, grinding urban warfare including room and building clearing by infantry troops.

Many American veterans of the Iraq war have stories of grueling building clearing operations in places like Baghdad or Fallujah which could take five to eight hours to carefully and systematically clear a single large city building. Marine veterans would tell you large building room-clearing is the most physically demanding and ultra-risky task of any infantryman. 

The Iranian capital of Tehran has a population of approaching 10 million, while the greater cosmopolitan area has some 16 million people

Tehran's population is estimated at 9.5m (16.8m including the metropolitan area). Its size and density are comparable to New York City: regionally, it is on a par with Cairo and Istanbul. -Middle East Eye

Tehran: A vast, modern cosmopolitan city, packed with civilians, now under US-Israeli 'shock and awe' style bombardment.

Adobe Stock image

As US-Israeli military planners know full-well, Iraq had descended into sectarian chaos soon after the 2003 US invasion, and a similar ethno-sectarian scenario could play out in Iran, though the Persian people tend to have greater national unity compared to that of neighboring Iraq.

The CIA and Mossad are reportedly already exploring trying to peel off one of Iran's large ethnic minorities, like the Kurds.

Source: CIA World Factbook (2016)

It just so happens that the Kurdish-dominant far northwest is filled with mountainous, rocky terrain.

This means any effort to launch some kind of ground civil war or unrest against the Iranian state by Kurdish proxies would surely be difficult, slow, and grinding - and terrain might be in Tehran forces' favor.

We will leave off this brief visual tour with a quote that commonly gets attributed to one well-known American author, who famously wrote the book aptly titled The Innocents Abroad.

"God created war so that Americans would learn geography."

― Mark Twain

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What a ground invasion of any country means: brutal house-to-house combat...

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