Yesterday, when discussing the stunning development that Russia would be granted a one-month license to sell (formerly) sanctioned oil to india while the Straits of Hormuz are blocked, we said that this step is just the start, and precited "unlimited extensions" in the future. We had to wait less than 24 hours for this to come true.

Speaking to Fox Business, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US may lift sanctions on further Russian oil supply after a move Thursday to give Indian refiners the green light to purchase crude from the nation.

“Treasury agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water,” Bessent said, explaining that "to ease the temporary gap of oil around the world, we have given them permission to accept the Russian oil. We may unsanction other Russian oil.”

Bessent said there’s “hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels of crude on the water now and in essence, by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply,” he said, quoting verbatim what we said on February 19.

He was referring to this chart:

Crude prices surged past $90 a barrel on Friday, rising to the highest level since 2023, as fighting in the region kept tankers away from the Strait of Hormuz, with some traders and energy executives warning that prices could climb to more than $100 per barrel if the conflict continues and local producers are forced to shut in production.

Bessent echoed other officials in anticipating the US efforts to defeat Iran will prove victorious. “Our campaign has been overwhelming,” he said. “They’re trying to create economic chaos, and I don’t think they’re going to be able to do it.” Meanwhile, NBC reported citing anonymous officials, that "Trump has privately shown serious interest in U.S. ground troops in Iran."

“We’ve considered all this,” Bessent said. “This is in the president’s calculus, and things are proceeding as planned.”

It's unclear if the president's calculus also accounts for $3.80 gas at the pump which is what the surge in oil prices will translate to unless there is a quick resolution to the Iran crisis.