为什么新西兰正在经历30岁以上人群的大量外流
Why New Zealand is seeing an exodus of over-30s

原始链接: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/world/new-zealand-australia-emigration-midlife-intl-hnk-dst

新西兰正经历着 необычный 移民趋势,流失居民数量接近历史最高水平,特别是30至50岁年龄段的人群。 传统上,年轻的新西兰人会去“大海外游”(Overseas Experiences),但现在,已经建立事业的专业人士甚至前总理杰辛达·阿 Dern 都在离开,原因是生活成本上升、就业市场疲软以及海外更好的机会。 澳大利亚是首选目的地,以明显更高的薪水(中位周收入高37%)和更低的失业率吸引着新西兰人。 像Thorns一家这样的家庭正在获得经济利益——收入增加、食品和交通成本降低——以及改善的生活方式。 还有一些人正在英国、美国和欧洲定居,被职业发展和经济稳定所吸引。 虽然新西兰总体上仍然保持净移民增长,但熟练劳动力的流失令人担忧,可能会影响长期的经济增长。 来自印度、菲律宾和中国等国家的移民涌入正在改变新西兰的人口结构,但留住经验丰富的专业人士仍然至关重要。 许多离开的新西兰人仍然与家乡保持着紧密的联系,将“家”视为一种联系,而不仅仅是一个地点。

## 新西兰人口外流:摘要 CNN的一篇文章指出了一种日益增长的趋势:越来越多的30岁以上的新西兰人移民,主要前往澳大利亚。这并非新现象——历史上,年轻的Kiwi(新西兰人)就一直在海外寻求机会——但目前的浪潮包括一个显著年长的群体,人数在短短四年内从18,000人跃升至43,000人。 Hacker News上的评论员认为这归因于多种因素,包括新西兰挣扎的经济以及相对容易获得的澳大利亚居留权(包括获得医疗保健和工作权利)。一些人指出了一种“负面反馈循环”,即新西兰被视为通往澳大利亚的跳板,类似于加拿大对美国而言。 此外,对前总理Jacinda Ardern专注于幸福指标而非传统经济增长的政策也存在批评,一些人认为她的政策加剧了导致人口外流的经济困难。虽然澳大利亚经济也面临自身挑战,但目前被认为更具韧性,吸引了那些寻求更好机会的人。
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原文

Twenty years of memories spilled across Jacinda Thorn’s yard.

Teddy bears and textbooks, camping gear stacked against her husband’s drum kit, a jumble of whisks and frying pans catching the morning sun.

With just five suitcases and their Shih Tzu Bubbles in tow, the family – Thorn, 43, husband Blair, 44, and their children Eva and Chase – swapped their home in New Zealand’s capital for a place in Melbourne – a third larger at the same price.

“I never thought I’d live outside of Wellington, let alone New Zealand,” she told CNN from Australia, two years on. “I still love it, but our family is now thriving and life has a whole new sense of adventure and ease.”

New Zealand, a picturesque nation in the South Pacific, consistently ranks among the countries people most want to move to, and has become an attractive bolthole for wealthy Americans seeking a safe haven in an unstable world.

But it’s shedding its own people at near-record levels.

Over the past four years, the number of New Zealanders aged 30-50 emigrating has more than doubled – from 18,000 to 43,000 – fueled by rising living costs and a weakening job market, demographers told CNN.

Thorn’s more famous namesake, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, recently became the unlikely face of this exodus. The 45-year-old’s office confirmed last week that she and her family have relocated to Sydney, after they were spotted house-hunting in the city’s affluent northern beaches.

Kiwis moving abroad is not uncommon, and more Kiwis generally are choosing to leave than before; in the year ending November 2025, almost 122,000 people emigrated, a 4% jump from the previous year and higher than a previous spike in 2012.

But traditionally it’s been those in their 20s packing up their lives and moving to London or Australia to work and travel for a few years. There is even a nickname for it locally – doing your “Big OE,” or Overseas Experience.

While these young adults remain the largest group heading abroad, mid-lifers, like Ardern, are now the fastest-growing segment, with retirees increasingly joining them, according to government data.

“It’s quite an unusual trend,” said economist Brad Olsen, chief executive and principal economist at Infometrics Ltd. “It’s only when you have those much tougher economic times that you generally see a net outflow of groups over 40.”

This 30s-to-50s age group stands out because its members are often moving their “center of gravity,” leaving behind established careers, networks and family ties, says sociologist Paul Spoonley, distinguished professor emeritus at Massey University in New Zealand.

“So the decision to migrate needs a very strong economic imperative to overcome that.”

The Thorn family, for their part, is reaping the rewards after Blair discovered his data engineer salary would jump by 50% in Australia, where Kiwis get automatic work and residency rights.

Eva, 16, and Chase, 10, are excelling at school and the family is saving big. Their weekly grocery bill has dropped from the equivalent of about $400 to $267; fuel and public transport are 40% cheaper; and GP visits cost 25% less – with same-day appointments replacing week-long waits.

CNN spoke with more than a dozen New Zealanders making the leap abroad mid-career – a family of four settling in England, another thriving in Scotland and a woman who calls Spain home after brief stays in Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Turkey.

Others have started afresh in the US, particularly in urban hubs like San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

Darren Eckford landed a role to set up an overseas arm of a New Zealand charity in the United Kingdom and relocated with his partner and two children just three weeks later, aged 33.

He is now head of learning and organizational development at CIWEM, a professional body in the water and environment sector.

“Traditional ‘Kiwi’ skillsets which were in rich supply back home, were in high demand in the UK,” Eckford told CNN. “And we were much closer to buying a family home if I packed up my savings and moved it to the UK.”

New Zealand has been plagued by a stagnant economy for two years, with negative growth in the year to September 2025 and unemployment hitting a decade high in recent months.

Its housing market has also crashed, with major centers Auckland and Wellington suffering among their worst slumps in history, following a post-pandemic surge – with prices down nearly 30% in the capital since January 2022.

“The country faces its highest unemployment rate since 2016, making jobs harder to find, especially for young and mid-career workers,” Olsen said.

In some cities, dwindling government and public-sector jobs have forced many who could previously rely on high, stable incomes to make tough decisions.

Senior policy adviser Aaron Harold and his partner, a solicitor, relocated to Australia last spring after two consecutive Christmas rounds of job cuts at their employers in Wellington made them fear for job security.

“Our wages are similar in Australia and employment law means longer probation periods, but the pros definitely outweigh the cons,” Harold, 43, told CNN.

“Career opportunities are better here and there is more choice. We also enjoy city life and the warmer weather.”

Almost 60% of leavers head to Australia, whose government estimates 670,000 Kiwi citizens now live there – equivalent to 12.5% of New Zealand’s current population.

The unemployment rate is lower at 4.2% compared with New Zealand’s 5.4%, while the median weekly income for full-time workers is 37% higher – the equivalent of $1,451 in Australia versus $912 in New Zealand, according to 2025 data from Stats NZ and the Australian Statistics Bureau.

Mark Berger, head of NZRelo, which helps Kiwis move across the Tasman Sea, said the biggest shift he’s observed is in people’s motivations.

“Kiwis are not moving for a few years of better pay anymore,” he told CNN. “They’re moving permanently to rebuild their lives… driven by hope for stability, opportunity and fairness.”

Leading the charge are essential workers like nurses, police officers, teachers and tradespeople – who for years have been targeted by Australian recruitment campaigns – as well as remote professionals drawn to “lifestyle regions” like Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, Berger said.

New Zealand still attracts more migrants than it loses, with official figures showing a net gain of 13,700 in the past year.

But the gap is closing – leading to the slowest population growth in 12 years – and it’s not a straightforward swap, Olsen said.

“It’s a much bigger turnover,” he added, noting that this “churn” can sap productivity as new arrivals need time to adjust while departing mid-career professionals often take decades of experience and institutional knowledge with them.

And as New Zealand’s population ages, it will be increasingly difficult to replace retiring workers unless the country can retain or lure back the 30-to-50s, Olsen added.

“If we have fewer young people coming in, keeping that prime working age group in the middle will be vital to keeping New Zealand’s economic motor turning.”

Spoonley said the departures are eroding “the quantum of talent New Zealand that is very good at producing,” and raised the question “are they ever going to be enticed back?”

Meanwhile current trends of people arriving to New Zealand include migrants from India, the Philippines and China, “and that shift has been quite rapid,” said Olsen.

“It’s changing the demographics of New Zealand quite considerably and quite quickly,” he added.

These arrivals enter industries across the board but primarily construction, house care, IT and computer work as well as one of New Zealand’s key industries – the primary sector which includes agriculture, forestry and mining, according to Olsen.

The experience of Scott and Charlotte George, who moved to the US during the last migration spike, highlights both challenges and opportunities for those make the move for good.

After losing their home in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the couple, then 38, relocated to Boston with their children Marcelle and Hylton, seeking better economic and educational prospects.

Scott, founder of payment system Paywaz, said they were drawn by the scale of opportunity in the US, especially for entrepreneurship, with greater capital, specialist talent, larger markets, and faster networks than in New Zealand.

But the move wasn’t without its challenges, including limited access to capital as immigrants and the need to build a professional track record in a system where credit history and residency length matter.

“The biggest challenge has been finding our ‘fit’” he said, adding that each US state feels culturally and economically distinct.

“Being a Kiwi, and from a smaller country, can come with a lingering sense of distance. It takes deliberate effort to build community and put down long-term roots.”

For many like the Georges, identity remains at the core. Speaking to CNN, many migrants described themselves as “proudly Kiwi” as they build their lives elsewhere, balancing the benefits of life abroad with a lasting connection to home.

“Home becomes a relationship, not a postcode,” George added. “You realize you’re carrying your country with you in your accent, your values, your humor and the way you show up.”

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