Iran's asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from kamikaze drone strikes on tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships to littering the world's most important maritime chokepoint with naval mines.
Even though much of Iran's conventional naval capability has been severely degraded in the 12 or so days of the Operation Epic Fury campaign, IRGC forces retain asymmetric leverage in Hormuz and the Gulf region through sea mines, drones, small vessels, and missile threats.
"It's a good tool of asymmetric warfare," Jahangir E. Arasli, a senior research fellow at Baku-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy who specializes in maritime threats, told the Wall Street Journal.
"The conventional capability is wiped out, but they have this asymmetrical capability," Arasli said, noting that he was speaking in a personal capacity.
The U.S. military said earlier this week that it had severely degraded IRGC naval forces, prompting Iran to shift away from sea denial operations in the maritime chokepoint and toward creating havoc in the waterway by laying naval mines.
Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan public policy research arm of the U.S. Congress, released a 2020 report titled "Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies" that assessed Iran has roughly 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines, with some more recent estimates putting the stockpile toward the upper end of that range.
On Thursday, President Trump told reporters that U.S. forces have struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels. This move to disrupt naval mine operations comes as such activity would be a nightmare for commercial ship traffic in the narrow waterway.
Tehran deployed naval mines during its conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, during the so-called "tanker war," forcing the U.S. to escort tankers and other commercial ships.
"Mines are the weapon of the poor," a former senior officer with the French navy and specialist on the subject told AFP News on condition of anonymity.
Earlier, CNN reported that Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a new message that said the Hormuz chokepoint will remain closed as a "tool of pressure."
Naval mines in the waterway, along with the growing number of ships awaiting safe passage, suggest that U.S. and allied naval escorts may soon be required if Washington wants to unclog the chokepoint. Even so, Tehran appears to retain enough asymmetric capability to keep tensions high for weeks to come.