In what could prove to be a major step up the escalation ladder in the two-week-old US-Israeli war on Iran, President Trump on Friday evening (notably after US market closure) announced that US Central Command had carried out a major bombing raid on Kharg Island, which handles upwards of 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Importantly, Iran has previously warned that an attack on the island would cross a red line, and precipitate Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure up and down the Persian Gulf.
Perhaps with that previous Iran warning in mind -- and to allay the fears of US allies in the region who don't want to see their energy facilities go up in smoke -- Trump emphasized that the attack was focused on military assets:
"Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.
Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision."
Iran's FARS news agency confirmed the attack, saying at least 15 explosions were heard as it unfolded. FARS reports that targets included air defense assets, a naval base, an airport control tower and a helicopter hangar associated with Iranian Offshore Oil Company. The Trump administration released video highlights from the bombing raid:
Trump's threat to "reconsider" the decision not to damage the energy infrastructure on the island if Iran continues to shut down the Strait of Hormuz will surely cause deep concern among Gulf allies and everyone else who's wary of the looming global economic catastrophe that will unfold if the Persian Gulf energy shutdown persists.
With Iran apparently bent on imposing a devastating cost for the US-Israeli war -- one that will deter future attacks -- there's little reason to think Tehran is going signal "all clear" on the strait anytime soon.
Five miles long and situated 15 to 20 miles off the mainland-Iranian coast, Kharg Island is essential to Iran's export of petroleum. Facilities there have continued to operate throughout the war, with at least 10 tankers hauling off nearly 19 million barrels since the US-Israeli surprise attack on Feb 28. Iran has, however, sought to add a small measure of export-facility diversification, by reopening energy exports at the Jask terminal, which is southeast of the Straight of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.
Earlier on Friday, Trump said the US Navy would shortly begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, telling reporters, "It will happen soon, very soon." A few hours after his Kharg Island announcement, Trump reiterated his latest war-justification that centers on Iran's supposed schemes for regional conquest, posting that "Iran had plans of taking over the entire Middle East, and completely obliterating Israel. JUST LIKE IRAN ITSELF, THOSE PLANS ARE NOW DEAD!"
The administration has reportedly contemplated seizing Kharg Island. Given its close proximity to the Iranian mainland -- which is teeming with drones, cruise missiles and weapon-bearing speedboats -- landing a strike force on the island and then occupying it could come at a high casualty rate.
On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved a CENTCOM request for a Marine expeditionary unit to be deployed to the theater of operations. This would typically comprise some 5,000 Marines and sailors on several ships.
Some speculation on Trump White House's thinking regarding this ultra-risky Kharg Island gambit (or what might eventually prove a point of no return) via Jim Bianco:
Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait. Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections.
For now, though, all eyes are on Iran, and whether its leaders view a Kharg Island attack that was confined to military targets as within the red-line boundary -- or if energy assets across the region will soon be beset by drone swarms and ballistic-missile barrages, sending oil and gas prices rocketing higher.