View a PDF of the paper titled Speed at the Cost of Quality: How Cursor AI Increases Short-Term Velocity and Long-Term Complexity in Open-Source Projects, by Hao He and 4 other authors

Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated the promise to revolutionize the field of software engineering. Among other things, LLM agents are rapidly gaining momentum in software development, with practitioners reporting a multifold increase in productivity after adoption. Yet, empirical evidence is lacking around these claims. In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of adopting a widely popular LLM agent assistant, namely Cursor, on development velocity and software quality. The estimation is enabled by a state-of-the-art difference-in-differences design comparing Cursor-adopting GitHub projects with a matched control group of similar GitHub projects that do not use Cursor. We find that the adoption of Cursor leads to a statistically significant, large, but transient increase in project-level development velocity, along with a substantial and persistent increase in static analysis warnings and code complexity. Further panel generalized-method-of-moments estimation reveals that increases in static analysis warnings and code complexity are major factors driving long-term velocity slowdown. Our study identifies quality assurance as a major bottleneck for early Cursor adopters and calls for it to be a first-class citizen in the design of agentic AI coding tools and AI-driven workflows.