Fed Chair Powell may be wishing he had quit a month ago as he faces his penultimate press conference (perhaps) amid a dramatically changing global economic and geopolitical environment.

Markets anticipate a "hawkish hold," with Powell reinforcing the statement's "hold" that The Fed is prioritizing caution amid heightened uncertainty.

On the bright side, an activist judge rejected the Trump admin's suit against him - so one reporter is bound to ask him about that (and whether he will stay on as a Governor after his term is up).

On the darker side - will the reporters ask all the tough questions about whether inflationary pressures from an oil crisis can be 'looked through' as transitory?

Powell is expected, as usual, to emphasize patience, a data-dependent "wait-and-see" approach, and no rush for policy shifts.

He'll likely downplay any major pivot, highlight dual-mandate risks (employment vs. price stability), and, as always, avoid concrete commitments on future cuts (or hikes) - now potentially delayed to later in 2026 (e.g., October/December) if at all.

Sue Hill, senior portfolio manager and head of government liquidity group at Federated Hermes, said the focus will remain on the Fed’s expectations for inflation and growth given the runup in oil prices.

“While Chair Powell may officially convey that it’s too soon to tell what the impact will be, we’ll see hints of the Fed’s thinking in any revisions to the summary of economic projections and the dot plot.”

And we did with the SEP showing higher inflation expectations (despite dots being basically unch)...

MUFG’s George Goncalves says this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.

“The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”

We would expect much usage of the term: ..."monitoring developments"

Watch the full press conference here (due to start at 1430ET):