美联储维持利率不变（符合预期），因伊朗战争带来“不确定影响”。

美联储维持利率不变（符合预期），因伊朗战争带来“不确定影响”。
Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid 'Uncertain Implications' Of War With Iran

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-36

自上次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议以来，全球市场经历了剧烈波动：油价飙升，而比特币、股票和黄金下跌，美元走强。经济数据显示增长和通胀超出预期，但能源成本上升引发滞胀担忧。 FOMC如预期般维持利率不变，有一人持异议。关键是，对降息的预期仍然仅限于2026年和2027年各一次——与12月时相同。然而，美联储*提高了*对2027年的通胀预期，表明其对当前油价影响的担忧程度高于对未来经济放缓的担忧。声明承认了中东局势带来的不确定性。目前所有注意力都集中在美联储主席鲍威尔的评论上，以评估本次“鹰派按兵不动”后的鹰派程度，并了解美联储打算如何应对日益加剧的经济不确定性。

原文

A lot - and we mean a lot - has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th).

Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also down notably while the dollar has strengthened...

Both growth and inflation data have outperformed since the last FOMC meeting (but as the chart shows, fears are rising over stagflation as the impact of higher energy prices - and tighter financial conditions - could weigh on growth)...

Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have collapsed since the last FOMC meeting (most notably since the war began) with less than one full cut now priced in...

The market is priced for absolutely nothing to happen today (from a rate change perspective - higher or lower), so all eyes will be on the number of dissents, the new set of SEP (dots) data, and any commentary on the economy and/or the impact of the war.

Expectations are for a continuation of a "hawkish hold" amid heightened uncertainty.

FOMC Statement

Rates remain on hold with one dissent

Fed statement comparison: exactly as expected.

Very little changes, small downgrade to labor market ("some signs of stabilization" to "little changed in recent months"),
...and brief discussion or Iran war ("implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain")

Dots: Statement of Economic Projections

*FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027

The new dots show 7 Fed members preferring to hold for the rest of the year with 12 preferring at least 1 more cut...

In 2027, there is now only one member who sees a rate-hike...

So, rather interestingly, The Fed left the dots basically unchanged from December but spiked inflation expectations for 2027 for both headline and core to 2.7% (vs 2.4% and 2.5%)

As Bloomberg's Ira Jersey noted:

“Somewhat less obvious in the statement about Middle East led-uncertainty, but the higher inflation expectations in the SEP are certainly a sign the Fed is more concerned about current oil inflation, and less about next year. So a level shift is more or less built into their forecasts."

Now all eyes turn to Powell to see how 'hawkish' this hold is?