Three weeks into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the Trump administration's central focus now is very clear: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore the normal passage of crude and LNG tankers through a maritime chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows.
On Saturday morning, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command and the official overseeing Operation Epic Fury, released an update on day 22 of the combat mission and stated:
Iran has lost significant combat capability over the last three weeks. We are taking out thousands of Iranian missiles, advanced attack drones, and all of Iran's Navy, which they use to harass international shipping. Their navy is not sailing. Their tactical fighters aren't flying. They have lost the ability to launch missiles and drones at high rates as seen at the beginning of the conflict.
Cooper then focused on the Hormuz chokepoint, stating that U.S. forces had "destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays" along the critical waterway that the IRGC used to monitor commercial shipping traffic and conduct targeting operations.
"Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz has been degraded as a result. And we will not stop pursuing these targets," Cooper noted.
A quick summary of the overnight U.S. military operations to degrade IRGC forces around the Hormuz chokepoint, which could allow tanker traffic to resume in some greater capacity next week as the world, and Asia in particular, faces an unprecedented energy shock:
U.S. forces have destroyed Iranian radar and surveillance nodes used to track shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, struck underground anti-ship missile facilities, and hit multiple coastal military sites, as Cooper assesses that Iran's combat capability has deteriorated over the first three weeks of the war.
Cooper's push to neutralize IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz comes as shipping traffic through the waterway remained subdued last week.
Overnight, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Japan's Kyodo News that Tehran is prepared to facilitate the safe transit of Japanese vessels. Japan imports roughly 90% of its crude from the Gulf, a dependency shared by much of Asia, including China and other major economies.
Following the degradation of IRGC forces in the Hormuz area, a coalition of 23 Western and allied nations (UAE, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and 15 others) issued a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks on commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, and the strait.
The countries signaled their readiness to support secure transit through the Strait, including coordination efforts and preparatory planning. In other words, this is a major diplomatic breakthrough to reopen Hormuz.
Additional Hormuz headlines:
Iranian Navy guided an Indian LPG tanker through the strait on a pre-approved route following diplomatic engagement
Iranian officials have become unwilling to discuss reopening Hormuz
Brent still around $112/bbl (+54% since the conflict began)
Energy market:
New developments on Iranian missile capabilities:
Latest on the Trump administration:
Trump said he was considering winding down US military efforts against Iran, claiming the US was close to achieving its objectives
The U.S. is ramping up strikes on Iranian drones/naval assets and preparing to deploy ~2,500 additional Marines, adding to ~50,000 troops already in the region.
Most critical reads:
Polymarket bets on a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 currently stand at 21%.
All eyes on the Hormuz chokepoint next week.