Bullets:

A Chinese company is in production of a hypersonic missile, with a sticker price comparable to that of a luxury sedan.

The launchers for the YKJ-1000 resemble common shipping containers, are mobile, and so the platform can be deployed to virtually anywhere.

Military analysts admit that this development radically changes the logic of warfare, with massive cost/benefit advantages now on the side of offense.

Report:

Good morning.

A private company in China has developed hypersonic missiles, that cost the same as a Tesla Model X. This missile, the YKJ-1000 is being marketed for sale, at a reported price of $99,000, and it’s in mass production now after successful tests. That is far below what countries will spend to target and shoot down the missile if it’s heading their way.

This is the announcement on one of China’s X channels:

Besides the low cost, they can be launched from anywhere. The launcher looks like any one of the tens of millions of shipping containers floating around on the ocean, or sitting at ports, or riding along on trucks, or sitting on industrial lots. The launchers for these missiles are hiding in plain sight, in other words.

These technologies are new, in human history. Today there is an extreme disparity between low-cost offense and high-cost defense. It’s always been the other way around. To mount successful attacks, armies typically needed at least a 3-to-1 numerical advantage in troops and weapons, because defenders are fighting at home, know the territory, are highly motivated, supply chains are close by. These cheap weapons now enjoy cost advantages of many thousands to one, on the offensive side, and can be launched from anywhere.

Naturally this should have our top analysts in a panic, at least those who understand the problem properly. Warrior Maven was on the story the first day and had it figured out. Whatever tactical advantages great-power countries have in ballistics is going away, fast; 1,300 km is 800 miles, and so the range is anything within 800 miles of wherever someone can send a shipping container.

They point out that nobody knows yet the true capabilities of the missile, but it doesn’t matter. The accuracy doesn’t matter very much, the payload doesn’t matter very much. If it’s launched at a certain target in Tel Aviv, it still is going to hit something in Tel Aviv. The Israelis have no choice but to attempt an intercept, and will spend millions to do so. And if several of them are launched at once, that poses “unprecedented threats” to everyone around.

So that whole paragraph is important—all of it. They conclude that the Chinese hypersonic missiles can be manufactured, at scale, and exported to countries friendly to China, and adversarial to the United States and Israel. That is significant because there are no defenses against hypersonics at all.

US and allied targets are vulnerable, right now, and this new weapon introduces many new threats to missile defenses.

That’s a good summary, but still falls short of what is implied by the “shipping container” problem. It’s true—this low-cost Chinese missile does “without question present unprecedented threats to Israel, and US ships in the Red Sea, and key US allies in the Pacific.” But it also poses unprecedented threats to any targets anywhere within a eight hundred miles of anywhere that shipping containers can go.

Be Good.

Resources and links:

China Unveils Cheap Hypersonic Missile for International Sale
https://warriormaven.com/news/china/china-unveils-cheap-hypersonic-missile-for-international-sale

China’s ‘dirt cheap’ hypersonic missiles could upend global defence markets: state media
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3334933/chinas-dirt-cheap-hypersonic-missiles-could-upend-global-defence-markets-state-media

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How China overtook the US in hypersonic arms and may leave air defences ‘powerless’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3343917/how-china-overtook-us-hypersonic-arms-and-may-leave-air-defences-powerless

Private Chinese company rolls out Mach 7 hypersonic missile at nearly 90% lower cost
https://interestingengineering.com/military/low-cost-hypersonic-missile-china

China’s low-cost ‘cement-coated’ hypersonic missile could threaten major warships
https://interestingengineering.com/military/chinas-cement-coated-hypersonic-missile