Summary
No pause from Tehran, war footing deepens: Iran denies requesting Donald Trump’s 10-day halt
Escalation on all fronts: IRGC HQ targeted by US-Israsel; Iran signals expansion by naming UAE targets, hitting Kuwait ports and sending drones on Riyadh
Israel doubles down amid reports of manpower strain: IDF chief warns of manpower pressure even as Defense Minister Katz vows to "intensify and expand" strikes.
Risk rises that Iran is holding back more advanced missiles for a prolonged war: WSJ writes "The US and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites... But Tehran’s missiles keep flying."
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Iran Didn't Request Trump's 10-Day Pause: WSJ
Iran has not requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants, peace talk mediators have been cited in WSJ as saying, and has still not issued formal response to the 15-point US plan delivered via Pakistan. This as the Pentagon is moving thousands of Marines and Army Airborne soldiers into the region.
The Wall Street Journal points out that "The U.S. and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some over and over across almost a month of war. But Tehran’s missiles keep flying."
One pundit questions, are we 'winning' yet?... writing the following brief assessment of where things stand: IRGC Joint Staff headquarters under US-Israeli strikes. Iran naming UAE targets as Abu Dhabi enters the war. IDF Chief of Staff warning publicly the Israeli military could "collapse" from manpower shortages. Iran claiming over one million fighters mobilised with IRGC lowering the age for support roles to 12. Pentagon considering 10,000 additional ground troops within striking distance of Kharg. Trump pausing energy-plant destruction for 10 days until April 6. Iran denying it requested the pause. Houthis warning they will enter the war. Lavrov saying the quiet part: “Iran did not violate any of its international obligations.” Russia’s oil revenue doubling to $24 billion this month.
Oil prices continued to spike this morning, with international Brent crude oil once again surpassing $110 per barrel. For the day so far that’s up another 3%.
"After several glimmers of hope, fueled by comments from President Trump, which were quickly dashed, the market is becoming more demanding in terms of rhetoric," said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. "The TACO trade is more difficult to do because a return to square one is not possible from here."
Gulf Flashpoint Widens: Iran Signals No Let Up
Multiple GCC countries issued incoming-attack alerts as drones and missiles light up the region Friday, with Kuwait taking at least two new hits: Shuwaikh Port was struck by "hostile drones" - per the Kuwait Ports Authority, with a second target, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port, reportedly hit by drones and cruise missiles. Infrastructure damage has been reported in both cases, but no reported casualties.
Saudi Arabia maintains its air defense footing, with the Ministry of Defense saying drones were intercepted and destroyed over Riyadh and the Eastern Province, following a warning for Al-Kharj - home to Prince Sultan Air Base. Six ballistic missiles were detected: two intercepted, with four splashing into the Persian Gulf and empty areas.
Absolute chaos in Tel Aviv...
New explosions have been reported in Dubai and Abu Dhabi on Friday. It's as if Iran and the IRGC are sending a clear "f-you" message to Trump in the wake of the series of ultimatums and deadlines Tehran never asked for. Trump earlier went from 48 hours to 5 days to now a 10-day window amid the threats to attack power and energy infrastructure.
Israel Escalates Too: Will 'Intensify & Expand' Strikes on Iran
The White House has been busy talking about its backchannel diplomacy and getting the beginnings of a peace deal off the ground via Pakistan, and at one point within the past week there was talk of Vice President J.D. Vance actually traveling to Islamabad - but the situation on the ground suggests the opposite, given also Israel has on Friday announced escalation of its posture. Israel has continued coming under consistent missile strikes.
Now, Defense Minister Israel Katz is vowing Israel's attacks will "intensify and expand" - citing that Islamic Republic had not heeded warnings "to stop firing missiles at Israel’s civilian population." Katz said: "The fire has continued - and therefore, IDF strikes in Iran will intensify and expand to additional targets and domains that assist the regime in developing and deploying weapons against Israeli civilians."
There remains a huge risk for Israel amid the expectation that Iran has been saving its biggest and most advanced, longer range missiles - rationing its arsenal as it settles in for a long war.
Strait of Hormuz Status & Overnight News
Tehran could still be playing a double game of public rejection coupled with private behind-the-scenes signaling. According to Axios' latest, Iranian officials are quietly showing interest in talks even as they reject Washington's proposal, with mediators leaning hard to force or 'will into existence' a meeting in the coming days. "Things are progressing very slowly" in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, and as of now, no meeting between senior officials is even on the calendar, per Isreal's i24NEWS.
The IRGC Navy is still declaring the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut: traffic "to and from" ports tied to enemy allies is banned outright, with warnings any movement will be "severely dealt with." In a rare twist, The Wall Street Journal reports Iran has even blocked two Chinese vessels from transiting Hormuz - signaling enforcement isn't just for Western targets. Washington seems to be trying to adapt in real time, as Reuters reports the US has deployed uncrewed drone boats into the theater, opening yet another front in an already widening conflict.