Even Erik Prince is warning the Trump administration to exercise extreme caution in Iran - particularly when it comes to boots on the ground.
The founder of Blackwater, whose private military contractors became synonymous with the U.S. quagmire in Iraq, is pushing back hard on current U.S. strategy toward Iran. Prince issued a sobering warning at CPAC last week. Speaking on the “Breaking Stuff and Killing Bad Guys” panel, Prince expressed deep skepticism about the current trajectory of U.S. involvement in Iran:
“I don’t share the optimism of the administration that there’s going to be a peaceful stop to this. They will burn it down.”
He then highlighted the particular dangers of committing ground forces:
“And my real concern is that if they try to put boots on the ground and force the Strait of Hormuz, you will see imagery of burning American warships in the next couple of weeks. And I don’t think people are really prepared for that.”
Prince is “extremely concerned” about the escalation and noted that Iran’s leadership has been preparing for conflict with the U.S. for decades.
Echoes of Earlier Warnings
Prince cautioned strongly against any US ground commitment nearly a month ago in a March 1 appearance on Steve Bannon’s War Room.
“Don’t ever contemplate ground troops in Iran," he said. “I don’t think a regime has ever been changed by air power alone. It’s wishful thinking.”
He was equally skeptical of relying on airpower for regime change:
“Airpower alone is not going to get that done.”
The Kharg Island and Strait of Hormuz
Prince’s warnings arrive as discussions continue in Washington about Iran's critical oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island (which handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude exports) and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Prince described a potential airborne assault on Kharg Island as “mighty thin” and “pretty sporty” due to dense missile defenses and Iran’s effective use of FPV drones down to the squad level.
At CPAC, he reinforced that Iran is no easy target and would respond aggressively to any attempt to seize or blockade key maritime chokepoints.
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