International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.

"I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports," Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. "It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result."

The FT noted that Birol was "careful not to name China directly," but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing, which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Birol said that "major countries in Asia who hold major refineries" should reconsider their current bans, adding, "If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic."

Birol's hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.

Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.

Alhajji noted then, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.

Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.

"Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release," Birol said. "They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community."

Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled "A Crude Awakening": "The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier."

Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."

Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this 'operation'? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?