A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.
These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Ssrait of Hormuz by his 8pm ET deadline.
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial yes on bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at about 6.30pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.
One of these wallets, created on Tuesday at about 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.
Another, which joined the platform on 6 April and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.
Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, made $31,908 of yes bets at 33.7¢, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for yes at that time may have reflected the efforts late on Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.
There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat – a phenomenon his critics have derided as “Trump always chickens out” or Taco.
While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the Iran-US ceasefire contract as “disputed”, given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.
Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.
“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry’s regulations. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”