Despite the positive development of a shaky US-Iran ceasefire holding, the reality is that Tehran still maintains de facto control over the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. A mere few vessels passed without incident on Wednesday, before Iran's military closed the strait again, citing Israel's massive attacks on Lebanon.
The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, "Iran's approval system for ships granted safe passage - after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened."
"Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said," the AP report continues. "Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government."
There are currently few indicators revealing Iran's intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel's anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.
Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz.
While this has not been confirmed officially by the Islamic Republic or IRGC, the following comes via TASS on Thursday:
Under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source told TASS ahead of talks in Islamabad.
"Under the current ceasefire, fewer than 15 ships per day are permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This movement is strictly contingent upon Iran's approval and the enforcement of a specific protocol. This new regulatory framework, operating under the supervision of the IRGC, has been officially communicated to regional parties. There will be no return to the pre-war status quo," the source said.
The same source additionally indicated that "the unfreezing of Iran's blocked assets is a critical executive guarantee that must be realized within this two-week timeframe."
Also, Iran is demanding that the end of the war must be formalized in a resolution of the United Nations Security Council: "If the termination of the war is not codified into a UN Security Council resolution based on our stipulated terms, we are fully prepared to resume combat against the US and the Zionist regim —just as we have over the past 40 days, and with even greater intensity," the source told TASS. Iran is further saying the US cannot build up more forces in the region during the two week ceasefire interim.
As for Iran's protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd's list outlines the following on where things stand:
- Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
- Iran's latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
- IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation
All of this means that the Iranian delegation in Pakistan will possess real leverage when it meets with the US side led by Vice President JD Vance this weekend. The White House has said talks are set to begin Saturday.