The cessation of US-Israeli strikes has brought relief to people in Iran. For those among them who began the conflict supportive of the assault, it also came with a kind of realization. “I thought this was it,” says Leila, 25. “I thought the Islamic Republic was finally coming to an end.”
Leila, who like all Iranians Middle East Eye spoke to is identified using a pseudonym to protect her own safety, says she believed the strikes on her country would be short and decisive – that they would lead to political change. “I even thought the US and Israel had already agreed with Reza Pahlavi about Iran’s future,” she said. “I was wrong.”
Leila is not alone. In the early days of the conflict, some Iranian opponents of the ruling establishment saw Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu as potential forces for change, even as unlikely allies. But as the war dragged on, and the scale of destruction became clearer, those expectations faded dramatically.
“Why did they hit bridges?” Leila asks. “Why destroy railway lines? Why target oil depots?” She shakes her head. “How does that help change a government?”
In January, at the height of massive anti-establishment protests in Iran and the authorities’ crackdown, Trump took to social media to tell demonstrators that help was on its way. But last Tuesday, he told Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”, before backing down and agreeing a ceasefire.
For anti-establishment Iranians like Leila, the contrast was shocking. “In the span of just two months, we went from ‘help is on the way’ to threats about the destruction of Iranian civilization,” she says. For Leila, the consequences were not only political, but personal. “I lost friends over this,” she says.
She recalls arguments with people who warned her not to trust foreign powers. “They told me Trump and Netanyahu were no better,” she said. “But I didn’t listen. I accused them of supporting the government.”
Some of those friendships have not recovered. “Now I feel like everything I believed in just collapsed,” she says.
'We thought it would be quick'
Ali, 29, had similar expectations. He says that after the January protests he came to believe that change could only come through force. The demonstrations began in response to rising inflation and spread into nationwide, anti-establishment protests.
The government says that 3,117 people were killed – including protesters, security forces and bystanders. The US-based human rights organisation Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates at least 7,015 deaths.
“We thought war would finish everything,” Ali says. Instead, it destroyed his family home. “Our house was flattened,” he says. “We were lucky to survive. But now we have nowhere to go.”
Ali says he believed claims that the strikes would be precise. “They said they would target specific people and military sites. We thought their technology was advanced enough to avoid civilians,” he says. “Maybe when they realised they couldn’t change the system, they started hitting everything,” he adds. “Or maybe I was just naive.”
Those who never believed
Not all anti-establishment Iranians shared that early optimism. Maryam, 47, says she never believed the war would bring anything positive.
“Only blind people could think that a war started by Trump and Netanyahu would bring us freedom,” she says. “Didn’t we see Gaza? Lebanon? Syria? How could anyone think this would be different?”
Israeli and US strikes destroyed energy infrastructure, bridges, steel and petrochemical plants, a synagogue, hospitals, universities and schools, not to mention hundreds of businesses. “Maybe we should be relieved that the explosions have stopped,” Maryam says. “But how do you rebuild a country after this?”
Maryam is very critical of Iranians who supported the war. “Now some of them say they had nothing to do with it,” she says. “They are trying to distance themselves.”
But she does not accept that. “Didn’t they hear Trump saying Iranians welcomed the bombings?” she says. “I cannot forgive that.”
Abbas, 54, takes an even harsher view. He believes the war has effectively ended Reza Pahlavi’s political relevance. “Reza Pahlavi did everything he could to reach to power,” he said. “But he never condemned any of the US or Israeli attacks on Iran’s infrastructure.”
He points to the praise that the son of Iran’s last monarch heaped on Trump. “He tried every form of flattery you can imagine, hoping Trump would take him seriously,” Abbas says. “But in the end, when a deal was reached between Washington and Tehran, he was left more discredited than ever.”
He pauses, then adds: “I hope his supporters understand now: you can’t rely on someone who is willing to see his own people killed and his country destroyed just to get to power.”
A ceasefire filled with doubt
Niloufar, a 34-year-old resident of Tehran, can barely believe the strikes have stopped. For weeks, she has stayed inside her home, listening to the sound of jets and explosions.
“When the ceasefire was announced, it felt unreal. Like something had lifted off my chest,” she says. “For the first time in 40 days, I was able to sleep peacefully.”
Yet uncertainty remains. There are still reports of sporadic explosions. Many are unsure whether the pause will hold. Israel killed scores of people in Lebanon on Wednesday, attacks that Iran said violated the ceasefire agreement.
Leila says she struggles to believe the attacks on her country have stopped. “They said there is a ceasefire,” she says. “So what are these explosions?” he lowers her voice. “What if it starts again?”
Others worry the ceasefire itself may be temporary – or even strategic. Mehdi, 31, says he does not trust either side. “I don’t trust the US or Israel,” he says. “Honestly, I don’t even trust them more than our own government.”
Negotiations were under way before the US and Israel launched their war. It’s unclear to Mehdi why these latest talks should be taken more seriously. “We were negotiating, then suddenly they attacked,” he says. “What if they negotiate again and then strike even harder?”
The disillusionment runs deep. Ali puts it simply: “Before the war, we used to say things couldn’t get worse. Now we know they can. We thought war would solve everything. Now we know it’s not that simple.”
Ali pauses, and his voice becomes quieter, but more pointed. “And we learnt something else, too: Reza Pahlavi is a stupid and ineffective politician who shows little real concern for the lives of those of us still living inside Iran.”