A Reuters report stated that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby "pitched" a merger with American Airlines during a recent meeting with President Trump. Shares of both carriers rose in premarket trading in New York following the report.
Two sources told the outlet that merger discussions took place during a February 25 White House meeting with Trump about the future of Dulles Airport, just three days before the U.S.-Iran conflict sent jet fuel prices skyrocketing.
Kirby said that a combined United-American airline would be better positioned to compete internationally. He said that the merger of the two carriers would strengthen U.S. competitiveness globally.
It is unclear whether United made a formal approach to American or whether negotiations were underway, but one thing is certain: most domestic carriers, except Delta Air Lines, have been hit by soaring jet fuel costs.
Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee noted, "This idea furthers our belief that the fuel shock presents an opportunity for United and Delta to emerge better positioned, potentially suggesting upside to out-year estimates."
Wetherbee said a potential merger between United and American could be too large, as the combined carrier would control around 40% of domestic capacity without divestitures.
As an alternative, Wetherbee suggested JetBlue could emerge as a smaller, more realistic target if American rejected United, giving United valuable assets in New York and Florida with less regulatory fallout.
Reuters spoke with antitrust lawyer Seth Bloom, who said a United-American merger would be unlikely to clear regulatory hurdles.
"The administration has said it really cares about the issues that affect the consumer's pocketbook, and this would give the airlines more pricing power," Bloom said.
American traded up 9% in premarket, while United was up around 2%. The broader S&P 500 Passenger Airline Index is down 7.5% year to date amid the jet-fuel shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.
In mid-March, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked whether a possible bottom had formed in airline stocks. Read the note here.