Goldman analysts Kyle Shaffer and Amanda Ross provided clients with a broad overview of industrials and natural resources amid energy disruptions in the Gulf area. In the note, they stated that the well-known Gulf energy shock is set to disrupt LNG production in Qatar for years to come. However, they also highlighted another emerging supply crunch that has received far less attention: sulfuric acid.
"Some long-lasting consequences have also started to emerge, including a 3-5 years production loss for LNG facility in Qatar, a 6-12 month re-starting time for some aluminum facilities in the Gulf, and shortage of sulfuric acid which can potentially impact future production for copper and lithium" Shaffer and Ross said.
About a third of the world’s sulfur comes from the Gulf region, where it is produced as part of oil and gas refining. Much of the sulfur is exported, primarily to fertilizer and industrial-processing hubs in Asia, North Africa, and, in Qatar’s case, some trading hubs across Asia and Europe.
Goldman analyst James McGeoch noted on Wednesday that Shandong sulfuric acid prices are soaring and that China is "slated to suspend sulfur exports from May (sulfur that is a by-product of processing)." He added that part of the recent push to procure and process concentrate is to produce sulfur for fertilizer.
It is important to note that sulfuric acid is one of the world’s most important industrial chemicals, used in fertilizers (phosphates), oil refining, lead-acid batteries, and chemical manufacturing.
Prices in China have jumped 90% since the start of the US-Iran conflict in late February. Current prices exceed the highs recorded during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
"Already though, prices have risen, and if there’s a shortage of sulfuric acid, that could quite quickly translate into more expensive homes, cars and electrical products," Bloomberg analyst Sebastian Boyd noted.
In the mining sector, sulfuric acid is critical for the extraction of several key industrial metals, including copper, nickel, uranium, cobalt, and zinc. Sufer is not just for fertilizer to feed the world; the mining sector could also face major impacts if shortages materialize.