Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Australia is on track to have one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world.
In the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, the global lender said economies around the world “face repercussions [from] the direct impact of higher commodity prices, indirect second-order effects on inflation expectations—which tend to be especially sensitive to energy and food prices—and amplification effects coming from [conservative] sentiment in financial markets.”
While the global economy had withstood “a series of shocks, yet another one—this time a military conflict engulfing the Middle East since the end of February—is testing this resilience,” the IMF warned.
It predicted that Australia’s GDP growth would remain flat this year at 2025’s level of 2.0 percent and would fall in 2027 to 1.7 percent.
Those figures are lower than previously projected, down from 2.1 percent for this year and 2.2 percent for next.
While that will be a consideration as Treasurer Jim Chalmers drafts his next budget for delivery on May 12, even more alarming is the forecast for inflation, with the consumer price index at 4.0 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2027.
Those inflation figures exceed those of most advanced economies, including the United States (3.2 percent in 2026 and 2.1 in 2027), the UK (3.2 and 2.4), Germany (2.7 and 2.3), New Zealand (3.1 and 2.3), Japan (2.2 and 2.3),
Australia’s unemployment is also expected to be stubborn, at 4.2 and 4.3 percent respectively.
IMF Calls for Less State Intervention in Economy
Prior to the outbreak of the Iran War the IMF had intended to revise its growth forecasts upwards, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil and gas facilities reversed the positive momentum and raised the prospect of a major energy crisis, according to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in a press briefing.
Under a “severe” scenario, in which an extended conflict results in greater damage to energy infrastructure, global growth would fall to 2 percent in 2026 and be perilously close to a global recession.
“What should we avoid?” Gourinchas asked.
“Price caps, subsidies, and similar interventions are popular, but they distort prices. They’re often poorly designed, hard to unwind, and extremely costly,” he said.
“Most countries don’t have that luxury anymore. Where support for the most vulnerable is needed, targeted and temporary measures should be deployed, consistent with medium‑term plans to rebuild fiscal buffers and avoiding stimulating demand where inflation is rising.”
Government Stimulus a Mistake: Experts
Two experts spoken to by the Epoch Times said they were unsurprised by the IMF’s forecasts.
While declining to offer his own forecast of GDP, John Quiggin, professor of economics at the University of Queensland, said he agreed that the Australian Labor government’s cut to fuel excise was “giving the wrong signals.”
“The only merit is that it is temporary,” he said. It is due to end in 3 months.
Graham Young, executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, said the government was giving “a masterclass in how to repeat the 1970s and 80s and turn a price increase into an inflation increase.
“On its own, the oil price will redirect spending largely from non-essentials to fuel, but if the government tries to soften the hit, and they do that without corresponding savings somewhere else, then it will turn into inflation,” he explained.
He cautioned that further pressure on inflation would occur if the Australian Council of Trade Unions is successful in its bid to increase the minimum wage by 5 percent without a corresponding rise in productivity.
“Wage increases without productivity increases are almost always inflationary first and deflationary second as they put businesses out of business, increase unemployment, and contract the economy,” Young said.
He recalled how interest rates were “probably not high enough to kill inflation” in 1975 and so were progressively raised until the peak in 1989/90.
“Our rates are better placed at the moment than in the 70s, but not by much,” he said.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said, at a speaking event in the United States on April 14, that inflation expectations were rising in the short term, but remained anchored long term.
“Our estimate is that the supply capacity of the Australian economy at the moment probably can only grow at about 2 percent,” he told New York University guests.
“By the third or fourth quarter of last year, inflation began to pick up, and is now around 3.5 percent on core and nearer 4 on headline, which is too high.
“It’s obvious that inflation is going up in the short term, and people are very conscious of that. There’s not much monetary policy can do about that, other than prevent it from getting into long-term inflation expectations. The big question for us is what it’s going to do to [business] activity ... Those are the numbers we’re crunching through at the moment.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has left for Washington D.C., to discuss the economic crisis with international counterparts, including the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, and Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings.
The IMF report showed it was “a dangerous moment for the global economy,” Chalmers said. “We’re weighing all of this extreme uncertainty as we prepare a budget focused on resilience and reform.”
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