内存短缺可能持续数年。
The RAM shortage could last years

原始链接: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/914672/the-ram-shortage-could-last-years

预计DRAM短缺情况将持续很长时间,可能持续到2030年,尽管三星、SK海力士和美光等主要制造商正在努力增加产量。虽然计划建设新的制造厂,但大多数工厂要到2027年或2028年才能投入运营,未能达到满足需求所需的每年12%的产量增长——目前的计划仅预计增长7.5%。 重要的是,新的产能将主要集中在高带宽内存(HBM)上,用于人工智能数据中心,*而不是*日常设备中使用的通用DRAM。这种优先顺序意味着影响消费电子产品(包括手机、笔记本电脑和游戏设备)并导致价格上涨的短缺问题,不太可能很快得到解决。供需差距预计将保持很大,预计到2027年,只有60%的需求能够得到满足。

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原文

According to Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.

The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.

Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.

The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.

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