Just as Europe's neoliberal establishment was celebrating the downfall of Hungary's Orban and his replacement with... another hard-line ant- immigrationist, it got some bad news on Sunday, as Bulgaria's pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev was set for a runaway victory in the election and may even secure a parliamentary majority in the poorest EU state, exit polls showed, potentially ending years of weak coalition governments and altering the European Union member's foreign policy.
An updated exit poll conducted by Sofia-based Alpha Research showed Radev's Progressive Bulgaria with 44%, far ahead of the long-dominant GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, at 12.5%.
If confirmed, the performance, which outstripped opinion polls, would mark one of the strongest results by a single party in a generation, sideline a party that has ruled on and off for decades, and may see an end to the instability that has resulted in eight elections in five years.
"Progressive Bulgaria won decisively. This is a victory of hope over distrust, a victory of freedom over fear, and finally, if you will, a victory of morality," Radev said of the exit poll results during a press conference.
Radev, a eurosceptic and former fighter pilot who opposes military support for Ukraine's war effort against Moscow, stepped down from the presidency in January to run in the parliamentary election, which comes after mass protests forced out the previous government in December.
According to Reuters, Radev rode a wave of frustration with political instability in the Balkan country of 6.5 million people, where voters are sick of corruption and veteran parties that have dominated politics for decades. Alpha Research put turnout at 47% with one hour of voting to go, up from the 39% total in the last election in October 2024.
"There is now an opportunity for the things people have been hoping to see change to actually become visible," Evelina Koleva, a manager at digital marketing company in Sofia, told Reuters.
Final election results are expected on Monday.
In his campaign, Radev drew comparisons with Hungary's pro-Kremlin former Prime Minister Viktor Orban when he talked about improving relations with Moscow and resuming the free flow of Russian oil and gas into Europe. He also criticized the EU for relying too heavily on renewable energy.
It is not clear how much his views will impact the foreign policy of Bulgaria, a NATO member on the EU's southeastern flank which joined the euro zone in January - a move Radev has criticised.
He said he would be willing to work on judicial reform with the pro-European reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which came third in the Alpha Research exit polls with 11.3%. A minority government was also an option in the 240-seat parliament, Radev said.
"Bulgaria will make efforts to continue its European path," he said. "But a strong Bulgaria and strong Europe... needs pragmatism because Europe has fallen victim to its own ambition to be a moral leader in a world without rules."
GERB's Borissov appeared to concede in a post on Facebook, but added a note of caution: "To win the elections is one thing; to govern is quite another. Elections decide who comes first, but negotiations will decide who governs."
Bulgaria has developed rapidly since the fall of communism in 1989 and joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has risen sharply, unemployment is the lowest in the EU, and the economy has greater safeguards since joining the euro zone in January. But it lags behind other EU countries in many metrics, and graft remains endemic, including in elections, where vote-buying is rife.
The cost of living has become a particular issue since Bulgaria adopted the euro. The previous government fell amid protests against a new budget proposing tax increases and higher social security contributions.