There were early signs during the third week of the U.S.-Iran conflict that EV demand was gaining traction in Asia, where the energy shock has been felt the hardest. That was followed by a separate note earlier this month confirming that EV demand was beginning to reaccelerate.
Now, Goldman analysts led by Kota Yuzawa see global EV demand gaining momentum after several years of muted demand, as the fuel-price shock at the pump pushes consumers back toward EVs.
Yuzawa noted that the share of the top 30 countries where the EV sales mix rose month over month climbed from 30% in January to 60% in February and 80% in March. This acceleration suggests the energy shock is helping pull the EV industry out of a multi-year rut.
The reacceleration of global EV demand has likely gained further traction in April amid elevated prices. Goldman's commodity team, led by Daan Struyven, wrote in a separate note that his WTI fourth-quarter forecast was revised from the previous $75 to $83.
This suggests the energy crisis is becoming more prolonged, and elevated fuel prices at the pump mean that EV demand will likely continue to rise - at least until Brent and WTI crater, depending on a Hormuz chokepoint reopening and a US-Iran peace deal being signed.
Yuzawa highlighted the global EV market in March:
We are monitoring the rise in natural gas prices in the Indian market, as we are concerned about the impact on Maruti Suzuki, which has a high share of CNG vehicles.
In the Thai market, both BEVs and HEVs are outperforming. The growing demand for HEVs, which offer excellent fuel efficiency, is a positive for Toyota and Denso.
In the Chinese market, we have confirmed a narrowing of discounts on NEVs. Exports are also expanding, which underpins our bullish view on BYD.
The expansion in demand for ESS is driven by the adoption of renewable energy against the backdrop of energy security. This expands the applications for automotive batteries, providing a tailwind for Tesla, BYD, and GS Yuasa.
EVs Outperform Amid Price Stabilization
Electrification Advances By Country
Really, all the EV industry needed wasn't lower auto loan rates but a Hormuz chokepoint closure and a global fuel-price shock to jolt demand back to life. Who would've thought...
Professional subscribers can read the full "Resurgence of Electrification" note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.