For the first time since June 2025, US home prices (in the largest 20 cities) fell in February (by 0.05% MoM) according to the latest (admittedly lagging and smoothed) Case-Shiller data.

The decline comes after prices surged into the turn of year and has now dragged the YoY gain in prices down to just +0.9% - the weakest since July 2023. 

The trend is clear across almost every city...

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, one could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.