2 月份新屋开工量和许可证数量激增（尽管降息可能性大幅下降）

2 月份新屋开工量和许可证数量激增（尽管降息可能性大幅下降）
Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-and-permits-surged-february-despite-plunging-rate-cut-odds

尽管降息的可能性出人意料地较低，但 2 月份新屋开工量和许可证数量仍较上月显着改善。这一激增标志着新屋开工量自 2023 年 5 月以来最大月度增幅，也是自 2023 年 8 月以来许可证最大增幅。天气被认为是 1 月份下降的原因。数据细分显示，多单元住宅项目，尤其是出租单元，比单户住宅的增长更为强劲。单户住宅开工量增长 11.6%，租赁许可增长 2.4%。两种类型都显示出相当大的收益。尽管房价飙升是在降息前景黯淡之际，但这一改善对解决现有的住房供应短缺问题做出了积极贡献。然而，强劲的房屋建设活动是否基于对美联储未来行动的夸大假设存在不确定性。只有时间才能证明这些新住宅能否满足需求并让住宅建筑商保持坚实的基础。

Housing Starts and Permits rebounded firmly in February from an ugly January.

Starts soared 10.7% MoM (+8.2% exp) recovering some of the 12.3% MoM decline in January and Permits jumped 1.9% (+0.5% exp) from the upwardly revised -0.3% MoM decline in January...

Source: Bloomberg

That was the biggest monthly jump in Starts since May and biggest permits rise since August.

With weather being blamed for January's decline, February seems like a return to post-COVID lower norms...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, rental unit housing permits outpaced single-family units

On the Housing Starts side, single-family units rose more (but both saw signifiant rises):

Single-Family: up 11.6% to 1.129MM, highest since April 2022, from 1.012MM
Rentals: up 8.6% to 377K from 347K

All good news for the meager supply out there. The question is - with rate-cut odds plummeting, has homebuilder confidence, which recently spiked back above 50, got too far over their skis on expectations of The Fed saving the day.

If they build it, will homebuyers come?

2 月份新屋开工量和许可证数量激增（尽管降息可能性大幅下降） Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)

2 月份新屋开工量和许可证数量激增（尽管降息可能性大幅下降）
Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)