Key data releases this week will be the US April jobs report and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. Other economic events feature the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and rate decisions in Australia, Norway and Sweden. Corporate earnings include AMD, Palantir and Rheinmetall.

The focus this week will be on the US April jobs report due Friday. Economists see payrolls up +65k in April, down from +178k in March, with a
slightly faster earnings growth rate (+0.3% vs +0.2% in March) and a stable unemployment rate (4.3%). Other labor market indicators due will include the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, US indicators will include the University of Michigan’s consumer survey for May on Friday (our US economists forecast some rebound in sentiment from 47.6 in April to 52.2), the ISM services index on Tuesday and Q1 non-farm productivity data on Thursday. Rounding out US events, there will also be the quarterly US Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday.

From central banks, policy rate decisions will be due from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expect a hike) and Sweden’s Riksbank and
Norway’s Norges on Thursday. There will also be plenty of speakers from the Fed and the ECB.

European indicators next week will include the April CPI reports in Switzerland (Tuesday) and Sweden (Wednesday), as well as March industrial production, factory orders and trade in Germany. In politics, the focus will be on the local elections in the UK on Thursday.

Elsewhere, there will be an OPEC+ meeting this Sunday. Finally, the busy corporate earnings schedule continues with highlights including tech names Palantir, AMD and CoreWeave and big consumer stocks Walt Disney and McDonald’s, amongst others. Defence firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo will also be in focus. Other notable European firms releasing results feature Shell, Ferrari and AB InBev. In Japan, the list includes Toyota, Sony and Nintendo.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 4

• Data: US March factory orders, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations
• Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Simkus, Dolenc, Villeroy, Kocher, Guindos and Nagel speak
• Earnings: Palantir, ON Semiconductor, Paramount Skydance, Pinterest, Norwegian Cruise Line

Tuesday May 5

• Data: US April ISM services, March JOLTS report, trade balance, new home sales, UK April new car registrations, France March budget balance, Canada April services PMI, March international merchandise trade, New Zealand Q1 labor force survey, Switzerland April CPI
• Central banks: RBA decision, Fed's Barr and Bowman speak, ECB's Panetta and Lane speak
• Earnings: AMD, HSBC, Arista Networks, Eaton, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Pfizer, UniCredit, KKR, TransDigm, Ferrari, Occidental Petroleum, Electronic Arts, PayPal, Coupang, Live Nation Entertainment, Leonardo, Prudential Financial, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fiserv, Astera Labs, Devon Energy, IQVIA, Super Micro Computer

Wednesday May 6

• Data: US April ADP report, UK April official reserves changes, China RatingDog April PMIs, France March industrial production, Italy April services PMI, March retail sales, Eurozone March PPI, Sweden April CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Goolsbee speak, ECB's Lane and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: ARM Holdings, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, AppLovin, Uber, CVS Health, Equinor, Marriott, Johnson Controls International, Infineon, DoorDash, Apollo, Warner Bros Discovery, Medline, BMW, Coherent, Orsted, NRG Energy, Axon Enterprise, Veolia Environnement, Vestas, Fresenius, Kraft Heinz, Albemarle, Flutter Entertainment, Verisure, Deutsche Lufthansa, Blue Owl Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday May 7

• Data: US Q1 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, March construction spending, consumer credit, April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, China April foreign reserves, UK April construction PMI, Japan April monetary base, Germany April construction PMI, March factory orders, France March trade balance, current account balance, Q1 wages, Eurozone March retail sales
• Central banks: Riksbank decision, Norges Bank decision, BoJ minutes of the March meeting, Fed's Hammack and Williams speak, ECB's Kocher, Villeroy, Guindos, Lane and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Shell, McDonald's, Gilead, Enel, McKesson, Howmet Aerospace, Engie, Airbnb, Cloudflare, Rheinmetall, CoreWeave, Cheniere Energy, Vistra, Coinbase Global, Rocket Lab, Datadog, Siemens Healthineers, Legrand, Rocket Cos, Block, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Expedia, Vonovia, Affirm, DraftKings, Unity Software
• Other: UK local elections

Friday May 8

• Data: US April jobs report, May University of Michigan survey, March wholesale trade sales, Japan March labor cash earnings, Germany March trade balance, industrial production, Canada April labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed’s Cook speaks, ECB's Guindos speaks 
• Earnings: Toyota, Sony, Intesa Sanpaolo, Nintendo, Commerzbank, Amadeus IT

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking  engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman and Governor Barr on Tuesday and Governor Cook on Friday. 

Monday, May 4 

• 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +2.3%, consensus -0.1%, last flat)
• 12:50 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks during the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium at the Yale Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 16, Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals." He also said, "Lately, the labor market has been displaying conflicting signs. In recent months, much of the hard data point to a stabilization in the balance between supply and demand, while some of the soft data suggest a labor market that continues to gradually soften."

Tuesday, May 5 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, March (GS -$61.2bn, consensus -$59.7bn, last -$57.3bn) 
• 09:45 AM [note deletion of manufacturing] S&P Global US services PMI, April final (last 51.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, April (GS 54.0, consensus 53.7, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 54.0 in April. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased slightly in April but remained below the latest ISM services reading (+0.8pt to 52.4).
• 10:00 AM New home sales, March (GS 680k, consensus 668k, last 587k [January]): Census will jointly release new home sales data for the months of February and March. We forecast that new home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 680k in March after falling sharply in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather in late January.
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 6,750k, consensus 6,850k, last 6,882k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 6.75mn in March based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium. Q&A is expected. 
• 12:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a moderated conversation about his career path and international financial regulation. On March 26, Barr said, "Given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as the other factors I mentioned, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions. Our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate incoming data, the evolving forecast, and the balance of risks."

Wednesday, May 6 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, April (GS +170k, consensus +120k, last +62k)
• 09:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a moderated discussion at the Mississippi Bankers Association 2026 Annual Convention. On April 1, Musalem said, "I believe the current policy rate… will likely remain appropriate for some time," but "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, … [or] to prevent the real rate from rising if actual or expected inflation falls," or "I could support raising the policy rate to avoid an inadvertent real easing that would result from holding the policy rate constant if core inflation or medium- to long-term inflation expectations moved persistently higher and away from 2%."
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a panel on the financial mechanics and real-economy implications of the AI investment surge at the 2026 Milken Institute Global Conference. On April 14, Goolsbee said, "The longer this inflation disruption goes, the more likely it is that rate cuts would be put off." He added, "I have some concern about piling the energy shock on inflation before the tariff shock went away. That’s a dangerous spot to be in."

Thursday, May 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.8%); Unit labor costs, Q1 preliminary (GS +2.8%, consensus +2.5%, last +4.4%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 2 (GS 190k, consensus 205k, last 189k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 25 (consensus 1,791k, last 1,785k)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.3% [January]): Construction spending, February (GS +0.4%); Census will jointly release construction spending data for the months of February and March. We forecast that construction spending increased by 0.4% in February and 0.5% in March after falling 0.3% in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather.
• 01:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat at Northern Michigan University. In his essay explaining his dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Kashkari said, "I supported the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to hold the federal funds rate at this week’s meeting, but I dissented against the FOMC’s action because I did not think it was appropriate to continue to include the following phrase in the policy statement: ‘In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.’” He added, "Given recent economic and geopolitical developments and the high level of uncertainty about the outlook, I do not believe [an easing bias in the statement] is appropriate at this time. Instead, the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves."
• 02:05 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a fireside chat at the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit. In her essay explaining her dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Hammack said "I dissented from the post-meeting statement because I did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy... I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook." 
• 03:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion on the regional economy at the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress event. 

Friday, May 8 

• 05:45 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on tokenization and the financial system at a Central Bank of West African States conference. Speech text is expected. 
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +75k, consensus +62k, last +178k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +186k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in April. On the positive side, the big data indicators of job growth we track were solid and higher frequency measures of layoffs remained low. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in April. That said, the bar for rounding down to 4.2% is not high from an unrounded 4.26% in March. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in April, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 50.0, consensus 49.4, last 49.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 3.5%, last 3.5%)
• 07:30 PM Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter), and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak on a panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026.

Source: DB, Goldman