As the Strait of Hormuz takes center stage Monday morning, Iran is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to transit the critical waterway. This directly challenges President Trump's plan for the U.S. Navy to "guide" tankers and container ships through the chokepoint.

Looking beyond the ongoing Hormuz crisis, the China topic is next: Trump is still expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks. This means any U.S.-Iran escalation could leave Hormuz disrupted for even longer and will undoubtedly be a major topic at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo that the Trump-Xi summit is still "happening, as far as I know."

This leaves us searching for real-world signals, not just headlines from officials, that the two-day summit is still scheduled to happen on May 14 despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

One signal comes from an aviation observer account on X, by the name "Safari," who says two U.S. Air Force C-17 transport jets landed at Beijing Capital International Airport in recent days, "making them a rare sight" at the airport.

Safari continued,

On May 3, two more C17 transport planes carrying advance supplies for Trump's China visit landed at Beijing Capital International Airport, bringing the total to 4 aircraft. There are already so many plane spotters here to photograph the advance transport planes; I can't even imagine what kind of spectacle it'll be around Capital Airport when Air Force One actually arrives

Polymarket odds:

As of this moment, based on Bessent's comments and reports of USAF C-17s landing in Beijing, all indications so far suggest that the Trump-Xi meeting is set to happen at the midpoint of this month.