Just a few hours after President Trump boasted that the US Navy had detonated "numerous" Iranian sea mines, NBC News reported that, even after three months of warfare, the US military has yet to confirm the presence of even a single mine in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.
Citing two US officials and a "person familiar with the matter," NBC said relentless searches of the waterway by aerial and undersea drones haven't found any confirmed mines, merely finding some objects that might be mines. “If anything, the threat has been far less robust than we had feared,” the person "familiar with the matter" told NBC.
Around the time Trump decided to join Israel in launching a war on Iran in the midst of ongoing negotiations in which Tehran had offered major concessions along the lines of what Trump is demanding today, US intelligence officials believed Iran had placed mines on the south side of the strait ahead of the shooting or shortly thereafter, said NBC. Allies had likewise reportedly concluded that Iran had deployed sea mines. The mine menace was said to be so formidable that, in April, a Pentagon official speaking to US legislators in a classified session said that fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months.
In a Friday morning social media post in which he foreshadowed a potential ceasefire agreement that would end restrictions on commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump boasted that the US Navy had "removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers."
The NBC report seemingly contradicts multiple CBS News reports. Most recently, on May 19, the outlet reported that US intelligence had identified "at least 10 mines" in the strait. Back in March CBS reported that an official said there were at least a dozen, while another one said fewer than a dozen. CBS attributed this information to officials who weren't named.
The potential presence of mines has weighed heavily on the minds of ship owners and --more importantly -- shipping-insurance underwriters who've terminated existing coverage and offered new protection at prohibitively expensive rates. Of course, mines aren't the only weapon at Iran's disposal: drones and missiles can wreak havoc as well.
Last week, there were reports that the UK Royal Navy was making moves for a potential deployment of hundreds of sailors on a mine-sweeping mission in the strait. However, as we emphasized, AP reported that this potential deployment would only proceed if a peace agreement were reached, suggesting it's principally a gesture meant to placate Trump, who has pestered NATO allies to help remedy the massive, strait-centered economic disruption caused by the US-Israeli decision to launch a war on Iran over a nuclear weapon program that almost certainly does not exist.
In March, Trump ranted against nations that were anxious over the shutting of a waterway that transports about 20% of the world's petroleum, in addition to about a third of international fertilizer trade: "Go to the strait and just take it. You have to start learning how to fight for yourself. Go get your own oil." Days later, he said, “The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it.”