人形机器人距离取代人类工人仍需数年时间
Humanoid Robots Remain Years Away From Replacing Human Workers

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/humanoid-robots-remain-years-away-replacing-human-workers

人工智能机器人公司 Figure 近期展示了人形机器人进行清洁和分拣工作的演示,引发了关于劳动力流失的讨论。然而,专家认为大规模部署这些机器人还需要多年时间。 尽管机器人在工厂等受控、结构化的环境中表现出色,能处理重复性任务,但目前它们在可靠性、安全性、成本以及适应动态和不可预测条件方面仍面临挑战。与已经影响信息类工作的人工智能软件不同,物理机器人面临着维护需求、电池续航以及现实环境复杂性等重大障碍。 新南威尔士大学的研究人员及其他专家指出,我们目前处于“选择性自动化”阶段,而非全面替代阶段。虽然物理机器人最终可能会缓解劳动力短缺并承担危险任务,但这一过渡需要技术上的重大突破和社会层面的深度调整。归根结底,人类在需要判断力和适应力的任务中依然占据优势。尽管企业因人工智能进行了裁员,但人形机器人对人类的全面取代在短期内仍难以实现,并受制于技术、监管和经济等多重挑战。

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原文

Authored by Stephen Katte via Cointelegraph,

AI robotics company Figure posted several videos on X throughout May showcasing its robots performing basic tasks, including cleaning a room and sorting packages.

Modern artificial intelligence-powered robots are impressive in their capabilities, but are still years away from replacing humans as they can't yet adapt to changing conditions, researchers say.

Last month, AI robotics company Figure showcased its humanoid robots performing basic tasks, such as cleaning a room, but a series of robots working for nine days straight sorting packages sparked conversation about how soon robots could replace jobs.

Oliver Obst, an associate professor of robotics at the Australia based University of New South Wales, told Cointelegraph that repetitive jobs such as physical work in structured environments are currently most at risk of being replaced by robots, while administrative and document-processing tasks could be replaced by AI.

There has been growing concern that AI and robots will replace people in jobs as technology advances. A report in May from workforce consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found that US companies have laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI.

However, Obst said that humanoid robots are unlikely to see a mass rollout soon because they don't appear to be more efficient or less error-prone than current robotic manufacturing methods.

"Even in relatively structured settings, they still face problems with reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovery from unexpected situations," he said. "The harder the environment is to control, the harder the robotics problem becomes. Most human jobs involve more variation and more judgment than the package-sorting demonstration."

"I would not say we are at the point of mass replacement by humanoid robots. We are much closer to the selective automation of some tasks. AI software is moving faster and is already affecting some forms of information work, but physical robots still have a much harder problem to solve."

In another video in May, a human worker managed to sort more packages compared to a team of Figure's robots, which swapped out when needing a recharge. Figure CEO Brett Adock said it would be the last time "a human will ever win."

People Still Better Than Bots In Some Areas

Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, said AI models and automation software can perform repetitive tasks with far greater consistency and endurance than humans; however, robots still require charging, maintenance and supervision.

A report in September from the International Federation of Robotics found that global demand for factory robots has doubled over the last decade, with warehouses and logistics among the fastest-growing areas of adoption.

"I believe broad human replacement is still likely years away," Levin added, "Reliability, safety, regulation, infrastructure costs, and trust remain major barriers to full-scale deployment across society. The challenge is no longer simply making machines capable of acting but ensuring they can operate safely and reliably as they take on greater autonomy."

Dr Francisco Cruz Naranjo, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales with a PhD in robotics, said the efficiency of robots compared to people depends heavily on the activity and the environment.

"Robots are much better at repetitive tasks without the need for constant pauses, as showcased in the Figure livestream. However, in highly dynamic environments, robots still struggle to quickly adapt to changing conditions," he said.

"Humans, in this case, are much better. This is precisely why robots at the moment are highly efficient in controlled environments, such as factories, but they have not yet succeeded widely in home settings."

Naranjo said repetitive jobs performed in a less static setting are at risk of being replaced by robots, but it will depend on how quickly research advances and how quickly society adapts in areas like making spaces robot-friendly, which is likely years away.

Robots In Society Could Be Beneficial

Naranjo and Obst said that a mass rollout of robots in the workforce could be of some benefit, such as improving work-life balance, increasing the workforce in areas with shortages, and addressing dangerous environments that are too risky for humans.

"The social question is harder. If robots make dangerous work cheaper in human terms, that can be good. But it can also have unintended consequences. For example, keeping humans out of harm's way in military operations may save lives, but it could also lower the perceived cost of conflict," Obst said.

"Hypothetically, if we became very successful at automating almost all work, then society would need to rethink economies that are currently built around individual wages and employment."

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