白宫表示,除非美军遇袭,否则将维持与伊朗的停火状态,油价因此下跌。
Oil Prices Fall As White House Signals Will Maintain A Ceasefire With Iran Unless American Troops Are Killed

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-prices-fall-white-house-signals-will-maintain-ceasefire-iran-unless-american

特朗普总统近日在“真实社交”平台上声称,他正处于结束与伊朗当前冲突的“最后谈判”阶段,尽管德黑兰方面否认进行了任何直接对话。与此同时,特朗普批评了四名加入民主党阵营的共和党众议员,他们以215票对208票的结果投票限制了总统的战争权力,特朗普称这些持异议者“不爱国”。 这场已持续近100天的军事接触目前仍处于脆弱状态。有报道称,白宫维持着“除非美军遇袭,否则不主动开战”的停火策略,国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥为这一针对伊朗挑衅的防御性回应进行了辩护。尽管暴力冲突仍在继续,但对于以色列与黎巴嫩之间可能达成的停火协议,外界持审慎乐观态度;分析人士认为,这有助于缓和地区局势并稳定石油市场。特朗普的策略似乎倾向于克制,即尽管小规模冲突不断,仍优先避免陷入更广泛的中东战争。然而,众议院的此次投票代表了立法机构对总统罕见的斥责,预示着中期选举前可能出现的政治摩擦。

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原文

President Trump in an early Thursday morning Truth Social post has said the United States is "in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War" - while blasting the Republicans who voted the night prior to limit war powers "GRANDSTANDERS" and "unpatriotic".

Even though Iran is denying that any direct negotiations are taking place, following a big flare-up this week in new tit-for-tat fighting which involved Iran sending more missiles and drones on Gulf states, especially Kuwait, the reference to 'final negotiations' was possibly enough to get oil prices to react, with a drop in crude.

There was also a report that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed.

As for the House vote, it was seen as a rare direct rebuke of Trump and the fact that this war - which the American public was promised would be a 'short' military action of possibly a few 'days' or 'weeks' - is now approaching 100 days, and the war powers passed 215-208, with the four Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes being Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Warren Davidson of Ohio.

Trump's new apparent strategy to just wait things out with no new planned military attacks has been featured in The Wall Street Journal as follows:

President Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, U.S. officials said, insisting that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.

The president’s reluctance to reignite the war suggests he might be willing to withstand smaller flare-ups for weeks—or even months—to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.

And Rubio appeared to second this in fielding questions about this week's violence:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the tit-for-tat attacks as purely defensive in nature and not a renewed outbreak of full-scale war. 

“They are happening in response to an Iranian action,” Rubio said in a House hearing Wednesday. “If they don’t shoot at those ships, we don’t shoot, but we have to respond.”

More evidence of Trump's apparently high tolerance for what he deems a violation of ceasefire:

In Lebanon, there is some remotely positive news, with Lebanon ‌and Israel ​saying had ⁠agreed ​to implement ⁠a ceasefire during talks in Washington and overseen by the US; however, once again the deal is contingent on Hezbollah agreeing to the ceasefire.

"That cease-fire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the U.S.-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three [days of] consecutive gains," Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen stated in a research note.

Trump rages at House's successful War Powers vote, which could portend a political shake-up going into this Fall's midterm elections:

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