我们真的需要亿万富翁吗?
Do We Need Billionaires?

原始链接: https://bjhess.com/posts/do-we-need-billionaires

这篇文章挑战了里根经济学时代的观点,即极端财富积累会像“潮水”一样带动整体经济。通过对比 1988 年的亿万富翁阶层与当代的超级富豪,作者指出,财富的增长速度已远远超过了通货膨胀。 作者利用生动的比喻——例如一百万与十亿之间在时间和规模上的巨大差异——论证了现代财富集中已经超出了“经济效用”的范畴,演变成了一种社会扭曲。文章提出,当财富达到一定阈值后,个人便会脱离现实,因为极端的资本使他们能够免受失败、后果以及通常能促进道德发展的社会反馈机制的影响。 归根结底,作者质疑我们是否真的需要拥有千亿净资产的个人来驱动创新。他们提议社会应设立财富上限,以防止个人行使过度的政治和经济控制。作者最后总结道,要改变这一趋势,就需要选出那些将公共利益置于亿万富翁利益之上的领导人,并主张回归一个将问责制和共同繁荣置于不受限制的积累之上的社会。

Hacker News 上关于“我们需要亿万富翁吗?”的讨论,反映了人们对于极端财富及其社会影响的严重分歧。 支持财富积累的观点通常认为,亿万富翁作为独立的权力来源和高效的资本配置者,通过竞争性的创始人主导型企业推动了创新。支持者认为,限制财富的尝试会扼杀雄心、损害经济,并迫使创始人放弃对其企业的控制权。 相反,批评者认为,亿万富翁的财富集中削弱了民主,助长了寡头政治,并使个人能够对公共政策和信息施加过度影响。许多评论者指出,由于超级富豪通常以股票而非传统收入形式持有财富,现行的税收制度无法解决这一问题。建议的解决方案包括对资产和土地征收高额税,以及拆分大型垄断企业以促进竞争。 这场辩论的深层分歧在于:极端不平等究竟是成功的全球化经济的必然产物,还是一种剥夺了弱势群体基本需求的系统性失败?归根结底,这场讨论突显了人们在亿万富翁这一身份究竟是社会净收益还是对民主平等的生存威胁这一问题上,缺乏共识。
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原文

A significant portion of the population in the USA still thinks of Reaganomics as certified fact rather than a largely discredited theory. By this mindset the engine of our economy requires people to strive for a ton of money. A rising tide lifts all boats and all that.

First, I got to wondering, were US billionaires even a thing at the end of Reagan’s term? As a tween at the time, I couldn’t really remember. Turns out, yes:

  1. Sam Walton • $6.7 billion • Wal-Mart Stores 

  2. John Kluge • $3.2 billion • Metromedia 

  3. Ross Perot • $3.0 billion • Electronic Data Systems 

  4. Donald Newhouse • $2.6 billion • Publishing 

  5. Samuel Newhouse Jr. • $2.6 billion • Publishing 

  6. Henry Hillman • $2.5 billion • Industrialist 

  7. Lester Crown • $2.3 billion • Inheritance / investments 

  8. Anne Cox Chambers • $2.25 billion • Inheritance / Cox Enterprises 

  9. Barbara Cox Anthony • $2.25 billion • Inheritance / Cox Enterprises 

  10. Warren Buffett • $2.2 billion • Stock market

Then, I needed some context for the difference between a million and a billion dollars. It kind of sounds like a similar thing, yes? Well, a clever internet person said, “The difference between a million dollars and a billion dollars is approximately a billion dollars.” In reality there’s a big difference between a million and a billion dollars, and I think it’s hard to understand it. Here are some comparisons between a million and a billion of something. Maybe one of these comparisons will help to register the vastness of the difference for you:

  • A million seconds is 11.57 days. A billion seconds is 31.71 years.

  • A million marbles fills a bedroom closet. A billion marbles fills over one hundred 12 × 12 × 8 foot bedrooms.

  • Flying a million miles will have you circling the earth 40 times. Flying a billion miles circles the earth 40,000 times.

  • A million miles gets you two round trips to the moon. A billion miles gets you 2,000 round trips.

  • A million dollars in a stack of $100 bills is 3.6 feet tall. A billion dollars in $100 bills is almost ¾ of a mile tall.

  • A million dollar bills laid end-to-end would stretch 97 miles. A billion dollar bills laid end-to-end would circle the earth nearly four times.

  • If you spend $1,000 a day, a million dollars would last 2.7 years. A billion dollars would last 2,740 years.

  • If you spend $1,000,000 a day, a million dollars would last one day. A billion dollars would last 2.7 years.

Wow!

↑ Excerpt ↑

Still, I could definitely see the everyday person saying, “Hey, Walmart is a net benefit to the economy. I can buy much more stuff with my paycheck than I could if we just had mom-and-pop grocery stores, hardware stores, pharmacies, and corner stores.” That’s probably true. Economies of scale did its scaling. I personally wonder if it was all worth it, though. Maybe we’d be paying more if we weren’t taken over by big box stores (and eventually the internet), but maybe it’d be nice to have those mom-and-pop stores around? And maybe we’d still have a bunch of US factories producing our goods? And maybe that would make us more able to react quickly to things like wars and global pandemics? That’s a bit beyond the scope of what I’m thinking about here, though.

Let’s pretend in 1988 the rising tide was tuned just right. Certainly when we’re talking complicated macroeconomics, a simple inflation calculation on the dollar isn’t quite the tool that should be reached for, but I’m still curious.

  • $1 in 1988 is worth $2.82 in 2026. That’s 2.76% annual inflation.

  • $1,000,000,000 in 1988 is worth $2,815,046 in 2026.

  • $6,700,000,000 in 1988 (e.g. Sam Walton) is worth 18,860,811,496 in 2026.

It appears that billionaires inflate differently than the rest of us, eh? Here’s the top ten as of April, 2026:

  1. Elon Musk • $817 billion • SpaceX, Tesla 

  2. Larry Page • $257 billion • Alphabet / Google 

  3. Sergey Brin • $237 billion • Alphabet / Google 

  4. Jeff Bezos • $225 billion • Amazon, Blue Origin 

  5. Mark Zuckerberg • $222 billion • Meta Platforms 

  6. Larry Ellison • $190 billion • Oracle 

  7. Jensen Huang • $155 billion • Nvidia 

  8. Warren Buffett • $150 billion • Berkshire Hathaway 

  9. Rob Walton • $149 billion • Walmart 

  10. Michael Dell • $141 billion • Dell Technologies

WOW!!

For the top spot, that’s a 13.5% inflation rate per year. Second place inflation is a mere 12.25% per year. Warren Buffet inflated 10.7% each year.

Interestingly both lists are filled with people trying to have an extreme influence on the direction of our country. At least that hasn’t changed! I mean, certainly all billionaires have lobbyists working on their behalf (again, that’s another topic), but the 1988 list had numerous publishers, communications folks, and even an eventual presidential candidate. Today we have a list filled with folks who own publishing companies, control information streams, build massive companies directly funded by government contracts, and directly throwing their sticks into the very spokes of the government bicycle.

The sound is different, but there are certainly similar echoes.

Evan Ramstad says (archive):

At first, I thought the New York Democratic congresswoman had stumbled into another one of those moments that, if she ever decides to run for president, will haunt her.

Too many of our elected leaders are ripping on the risk-takers who are badly needed by America’s and Minnesota’s economies.

I’m an entrepreneur myself. I’ve been risk-taking to some degree most of my career. Yet I don’t understand how anyone can honestly say that we badly need risk takers of the hundred-billionaire type to keep our economy going. I think it’s a fundamental misunderstanding, or a disingenuous re-staging, of the numbers I presented at the beginning of this post. A billionaire is so incredibly rich that it defies comprehension, and thus makes our discussions around all of this unhinged.

Ah, but you say we need the industry that those hundred-billionaires create. But…do we? Is AI software worth it? Self-driving cars? Or is that the wrong question? Would making a mere ten billion dollars put off a mega-entrepreneur from seeking their place in the history books? Do we really need to give a select few individuals this society-warping level of power in order to get these advancements? I really can’t imagine that’s the case.

Finally, Noah Hawley (archive) speaks to the transition of a human being to a hundred-billionaire:

The closer I’ve gotten to the world of wealth, the more I understand that being truly rich doesn’t mean amassing enough money to afford superyachts, private jets, or a million acres of land. It means that everything becomes effectively free. Any asset can be acquired but nothing can ever be lost, because for soon-to-be trillionaires, no level of loss could significantly change their global standing or personal power. For them, the word failure has ceased to mean anything. 

This sense of invulnerability has deep psychological ramifications. If everything is free and nothing matters, then the world and other people exist only to be acted upon, if they are acknowledged at all. This is different from classic narcissism, in which a grandiose but fragile self-image can mask deep insecurity. What I’m talking about is a self-definition in which the individual grows to the size of the universe, and the universe vanishes.

Decades of research in developmental psychology have shown that moral reasoning develops through consequences—not punishment, necessarily, but experiencing the effects of your actions on others, receiving honest feedback, having to accommodate reality as it actually is rather than as you wish it to be. It’s not that the wealthy become evil; it’s that their environment stops teaching them the things that nonwealthy people are forced to learn simply by living in a world that pushes back. When you can buy your way out of any mistake, when you can fire anyone who disagrees with you, when your social circle consists entirely of people who need something from you, the basic mechanism by which humans learn that other people are real goes dark.

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