Continuing a trend of increasingly dismal projections, Social Security's trustees have revised their prediction of when the massive benefit program's trust fund will run out of money, moving it to the fourth quarter of 2032, sooner than last year's projection that the money will run out in 2033. They attributed most of the the change to declining fertility rates and immigration, along with tax reductions included in Trump's 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
When the trust fund runs out, money will still be coming into the program via ongoing taxes from workers and self-employed individuals. However, without the ability to tap the trust fund, the program won't be able to keep paying out full benefits. Under the law governing the program, insufficient assets means payouts must be cut for all beneficiaries by a uniform percentage. In their report posted on Tuesday, the trustees projected that benefits will have to be slashed by 22% in 2032.
That scenario assumes Congress and the president fail to intervene by then. Given older Americans' high propensity to vote -- which will only be magnified with their retirement income under threat -- it's a safe bet that something's going to change to fend off an across-the-board slashing of benefits.
Potential tweaks include raising the eligibility-age for receiving Social Security income, increasing payroll taxes that fund the program, and "means-testing" that would cut benefits for better-off Americans. The federal government would like you to believe that Social Security isn't currently means-tested, but it truly is in a back-door way: the higher your income, the more your Social Security benefit is taxed. Taxation of Social Security income is just a roundabout way of slashing benefits -- by giving you your "full" benefit but then confiscating a portion. Congress could also choose to throw out the (increasingly fictional) framework that positions Social Security as a self-funding pension program -- by opting to fund benefits with general revenue and borrowing.
Though Congress has long kicked the can down the road, we'll soon have a group of legislators trapped by the timing of their particular tenure in office, and compelled to take action for the first time since a 1983 deal brokered by President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "Senators elected this fall will be in office when the SocSec trust fund hits insolvency. So it *should* be a major campaign issue. But few voters care," observed the Brookings Institution's Jessica Riedl on X. "They have their silly narratives ('stop stealing the trust fund,') & fake solutions ('remove the cap'). But, y'all were warned."
"Remove the cap" refers to the fact that the Social Security portion of the payroll tax is only applied to incomes up to $184,500 in 2026. Demagoguing leftist politicians regularly tout removing the payroll-tax cap as a simple solution, but as with the government's broader fiscal woes, the problem is so large that sticking it to more prosperous Americans doesn't get you very far.
The trustees pointed to multiple factors driving their revised projection on when the trust fund will run out. In addition to dropping fertility rates -- which continues to worsen the ratio of people taking benefits to to people paying into the program -- they also said reduced immigration is lowering program revenue. They also noted that revenue has been decreased by Trump's OBBBA-enabled $4,000 tax deduction that primarily benefits moderate-income recipients of Social Security benefits. Riedl and the American Enterprise Institute's Andrew Biggs also highlighted a much lesser-known dynamic that's pushing Social Security toward insolvency:
Though Social Security's crisis is getting closer and closer, most federal politicians will continue to steer clear of the issue until 2032, and the few who dare to address it before then will be promptly accused of "attacking" the program.