Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.
Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.
Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.
In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.
Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.
Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.
As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.
The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.
The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.
But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.
Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.
Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.
All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.
The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.
The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.
“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.
Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.
Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.
“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market's fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.
“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”
Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.
“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.
“We're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”