终于要终局了?伊朗和平协议预计在 24 小时内签署,随后将进行技术会谈,巴基斯坦谢里夫称。
Endgame Finally? Iran Peace Deal Signing Expected Within 24-Hours, Technical Talks To Follow, Pakistan's Sharif Says

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/endgame-finally-iran-peace-deal-signing-expected-within-24-hours-technical-talks

据报道,华盛顿与德黑兰即将达成一项和平协议。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫表示,协议最终文本已经敲定,电子签署可能会在24小时内进行。拟议的谅解备忘录包括将4月7日的停火协议延长60天,并逐步重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,尽管两国在该水道的控制权问题上仍存在分歧。 该协议的一个关键内容是允许伊朗将核谈判推迟到60天过渡期之后,从而实现了德黑兰将冲突与其核计划脱钩的目标。在6月中旬七国集团(G7)峰会召开前,涉及巴基斯坦和瑞士的外交斡旋正在加紧进行。 尽管取得了进展,但仍存在重大障碍。白宫面临着避免局势升级的内部压力,而德黑兰则必须应对伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)内部强硬派的国内阻力。虽然经济疲软正促使伊朗寻求达成协议,但该政权仍在利用其立场从特朗普政府那里获取让步。专家们对此仍持怀疑态度,指出“魔鬼在细节中”,且该协议在延长的过渡期内很容易破裂。

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原文

After Friday witnessed a rare moment of agreement between Tehran and Washington saying that indeed a peace deal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is indeed 'very close' - there's been more color issued by Pakistan.

The country's Prime Minister Shehbaz ​Sharif said that the United States and ​Iran have ​agreed to the final text of the agreement, but that curiously Pakistan is now preparing for an electronic ​signing ​expected ⁠within the next 24 ​hours.

Is this going to be history's first Docusigned peace agreement? 

Sharif further indicated this signing will be followed by ​technical-level ⁠talks this upcoming week - but this is definitely where the proverbial devil will be in the details. 

Contained withing the MoU signing will reportedly be an extension of the April 7 ceasefire by 60 days, during which the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen - or we should say that this is at least the very optimistic version of things, given that Tehran still insists that its military is in control of the Strait, which the Pentagon has flatly rejected is a a reality.

So Iran is seeking to hold on tightly to its obvious geographic leverage, while the US is rejecting that this is the case at all.

Another interesting possibly point of contention - but which looks to be merely papered over for now - is the status of the nuclear file, which has long been a major point of fierce contention.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday Iran's understanding that terms dealing with the country's nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.

Importantly Araghchi indicated the two sides could extend the 60-day period further, and a yet a lot could go wrong in such an extended interim. Still, it remains that Washington - and certainly the American public - doesn't have the appetite for an escalation that would lead to a boots on the ground scenario complete with full regime change operations (and this means almost inevitable nation-building).

CNN earlier floated the possibility of peace being firmed up in a formal ceremony held in Geneva. The following Saturday report seems to lend credence to this as an impending scenario:

The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Switzerland expressed hopes of a breakthrough in peace negotiations to end the US war with Iran during a Saturday phone call, according to Islamabad's Foreign Ministry. 

Though no further details were offered, the sides said they hoped the effort would contribute to regional peace and stability.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis reportedly agreed to maintain close contact ahead of talks expected to take place prior to an upcoming G7 summit in nearby Evian, France, from June 15-17.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal is again alleging a familiar US narrative - that there are deep rifts withing Iran over just how to respond to US deal-making efforts. The question is to what degree the civilian leadership actually holds the power to make final decisions, or also how tight a grip the IRGC holds over this process.

"Iran faces its own political dilemma in selling a deal to hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are steadfastly opposed to giving in to Trump’s demands for limits on its nuclear program, especially without upfront concessions from Washington," WSJ writes. "But it has absorbed damage during the war and from the U.S. blockade of the Persian Gulf, pushing Tehran toward an agreement."

Iran's strategy has been to smell blood in the water and capitalize - sensing a bit of White House panic (the longer this drags on... quagmire being a key dreaded word), and so it has an interest in prolonging the economic pain and global energy shock toward exacting a pound of flesh from the Trump administration (so long as the Islamic Republic itself can survive the stand off). 

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