员工股权的价值很大程度上取决于波动率。
The value of employee equity depends a lot on volatility

原始链接: https://devanshpanda.com/writing/volatility/

在评估初创公司股权时,将总价值除以归属期(vesting period)的常规做法,往往会大幅低估实际薪酬。这是因为初创公司的股权实际上是一种**内嵌看涨期权**。 由于你可以在公司表现不佳时随时离职,你本质上是在用时间分期“购买”股权,并拥有在项目失败时放弃的权利。因此,在高波动的情况下,你的预期薪酬远高于简单计算所得出的数值。 如果一家公司取得巨大成功的概率很小,而失败的概率很高,那么你很可能只会在成功的情景中实现股权价值(此时你会留任),而在失败的情景中迅速退出(此时你会离职)。这压缩了你在公司投入的时间,从而显著提高了股权薪酬的“时薪”。 尽管风险厌恶、现金工资以及被解雇的风险提供了必要的制衡,但从纯数学角度来看,更高的波动性——结合你随时可以离职的能力——会显著增加经时间调整后的股权收益潜力。

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We're going to use concrete numbers to ground these intuitions. Let's say you have an implicit valuation of $50m for an early-stage startup. That is, you would exchange $500k for 1% of the equity in the startup, and you're relatively indifferent between the two.

Now let's say you're considering working at this startup, with a standard 4-year vesting schedule with 1-year cliff. They offer you 1% of the company, so you'll sign and get 0.25% per year for 4 years. Naively, you would expect that if 1% of the company is worth 500k in EV to you, the expected value of getting this equity over 4 years is $125k/yr; assuming that you're perfectly risk-neutral you would expect to think about it as an extra 125k of salary.

Let's now examine a somewhat extreme case. Say the reason the startup is worth $50m in your mind right now is that you expect a 5% chance that it'll go to a billion dollars in a year (and not move after that) and a 95% chance that it'll go to zero, so the options look like the following:

5% chance: you work there for 4 years, your equity is worth $10 million
95% chance: you work there for 1 year, your equity is worth $0

In expectation, you're working there for 1.15 years and getting $500k worth of equity, so your equity compensation is worth about $434k/yr—a far cry from the 125k we calculated earlier.

A friend recently commented on a seed-stage startup that had extremely high volatility within the next 3-4 months. Rerunning the same calculations (a 5% chance of it going to a billion in 3 months and a 95% chance of it going to 0), the expected time there becomes 5.25 months for the same $500k worth of equity for an expected equity compensation of $1.14 million dollars per year; ten times the naive calculation!

The potentially massive difference is because of an embedded call option. Because you can leave at any point if the startup is not doing very well, you have the right but not the obligation at every point on the curve to continue purchasing the equity with your time, instead of walking away. It's like if you were investing in a company, but you got to lock in a specific price to invest at every 3 months for 4 years, and you could walk away at any point!

There are obviously other factors involved. Startup equity is extremely risky, and likely to make up the majority of your net worth, and so if you're at all risk averse you should discount these numbers by risk aversion. Cash compensation is obviously also significant. Volatility is scary, and working at a company that has stable increasing lines on a graph is psychologically less taxing. Finally, you don't fully have an embedded option because your employer can technically also fire you at any point (though it is sufficiently rare for them to fire you for other-than-legitimate-reasons when the company is succeeding that you can mostly discount this—rising tides lift all ships, etc etc).

But from a pure time-adjusted returns perspective it matters a lot how much volatility the startup you are considering joining will experience, because you, at a given actual expected company value, gain a lot from more vol.

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