Iran and the US have a peace deal? check (for 60 days, allegedly).
Strait of Hormuz open? check (for 60 days, allegedly).
Ships transiting freely? check (not really)
Massive build up of Gulf oil desperate to reach Asian refiners? check.
All great news, which means that oil should now flow freely and in huge amounts, right?
Wrong: two of Asia's largest refiners, PetroChina and Indian Oil, failed to secure very large crude carriers to lift Iraqi Basrah crude in late June, Reuters reported, while another Chinese major Sinochem is on the hunt for a tanker.
The inquiries from the state energy firms followed an interim deal between the United States and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. PetroChina had sought a VLCC (which can carry up to 2mm barrels) to load from Iraq's Basrah Oil terminal between June 25 and 30. And while the Chinese major received at least six offers at worldscale points of 650 to 750, these rates were nearly triple those charged before the Iran war broke out in late February. The worldscale measure is used by the shipping industry to calculate freight rates.
"There are tankers available, but the problem is it's too expensive and there is no guarantee you can exit the strait," a PetroChina official said.
Indeed, a quick look at the latest gulf tanker rates shows that while not nearly as bad as when the war broke out, rates on tankers from the Gulf to various Asian destinations have doubled in the past weeks as buyers scramble to secure their shipments. Expect these prices to soar much higher in the coming days.
The punchline: securing supplies from the Gulf will remain complicated despite the peace deal, and not just due to the soaring tanker prices.
"It'll be still difficult to fix a vessel due to the rate, and I assume that both parties need to agree to some special clause (in the contract for transiting the strait)," the source said.
On Thursday, another Chinese state major, Sinochem, sought a VLCC to load oil in the Gulf between June 20 and 30 for Asia, the shipping sources said. It was not immediately clear if the company would succeed in finding a vessel.
Remarkably, as this was taking place, India's giant oil company IOC did not receive any offers in a tender last week seeking a VLCC to lift oil from Iraq on June 22 and 23 and deliver to Paradip port on India's east coast, a Reuters source said.
IOC, India's largest refiner, subsequently issued a force majeure on the cargo.