美伊核谈判首轮会议因黎以冲突爆发而推迟
Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed After Israel-Lebanon Clashes Erupt

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/opening-round-us-iran-nuclear-talks-postponed-after-lebanon-clashes-erupt

美国与伊朗在瑞士进行的高风险核谈判,因以色列在黎巴嫩南部发动的空袭激增而突然推迟。此次暴力事件造成 18 人死亡,使几天前签署的脆弱临时协议岌岌可危。 德黑兰拒绝派出代表团,称这些袭击违反了协议中关于黎巴嫩永久停火的要求。伊朗官员坚持“没有黎巴嫩,就没有协议”的立场,认为尽管他们已对真主党进行了约束,但美国未能遏制以色列的军事行动。相反,以色列官员公开否认有克制必要,一些人甚至呼吁进行更激进的升级。 这些初步谈判的破裂使得更广泛的 60 天停火协议,以及霍尔木兹海峡的重开计划陷入僵局。目前外交框架的成功完全取决于特朗普政府与伊朗能否有效控制各自的盟友。随着日内瓦谈判停滞,据报道,调解人正在考虑伊斯兰堡或多哈等其他地点来挽救谈判。局势凸显了该地区的不稳定性,代理人冲突正威胁着核去紧张化与海上稳定的关键努力。

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原文

Talks between Iran and the US were postponed on Friday in Switzerland, delaying what was supposed to be the opening round of negotiations towards a permanent peace and nuclear deal.

The delay appears to center on a new escalation between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, a troubling development that threatens the fresh interim deal signed by President Trump and Iran just days ago. Tehran has insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon is part of the interim deal, meaning the Israel-Hezbollah front could derail the US-Iran diplomatic path to a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Financial Times provided more details on the overnight development:

Talks between Iran and the US in Switzerland were postponed due to Israel launching a wave of deadly air strikes on southern Lebanon, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Iran did not send a delegation to Switzerland for the nuclear talks because of the attacks, the people said. The interim agreement signed by the US and Iran on Wednesday stipulates the "immediate and permanent termination" of fighting, including in Lebanon.

A diplomat familiar with the Switzerland talks told the outlet:

The Iranians have asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end, as outlined in the signed agreement, and mediators are currently working to resolve the issue.

According to other FT sources, Iran's position is effectively "no Lebanon, no deal," arguing that it has restrained Hezbollah while Washington has failed to restrain Israel.

Israeli airstrikes across more than 10 villages in southern Lebanon killed 18 people and wounded 33, according to Lebanon's health ministry.

Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel's national security minister, reacted on X to the latest fighting in Lebanon:

For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn! With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration. I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don't win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.

Drop Site provided more color on the canceled talks:

  • Al Mayadeen report earlier today that Iran's delegation suspended its trip to Geneva due to ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.
  • A White House spokesperson later said Vice President JD Vance, head of the US delegation, also canceled his planned trip to meet Iranian negotiators and begin talks on negotiating and implementing the postwar framework
  • Reuters reported the delegation had been preparing to launch the first round of the agreement's 60-day negotiations. Tehran had previously told Washington and mediators that developments in Lebanon would be a key factor in whether talks proceed.

Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousaf wrote on X, "Pakistan has called back its advance team from Switzerland, throwing the next round of Iran-US talks into uncertainty."

He added, "With Tehran seemingly reluctant to engage at a European venue, diplomatic sources say Islamabad or Doha is now the most likely destination for the next round of negotiations."

Beyond the overnight fighting in southern Lebanon, the takeaway is that the interim deal still gives Washington and Tehran a 60-day ceasefire window, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and creating a framework for eventual talks on Iran's nuclear program.

The problem now is that both sides need to control their proxies and allied partners. Tehran must keep its Hezbollah fighters restrained, while the Trump administration must keep its Israeli ally from escalating in Lebanon. Without that dual restraint, the 60-day ceasefire window could collapse.

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