尽管面临美国压力,叙利亚仍“不愿且未准备好”攻击黎巴嫩并应对真主党
Syria 'Unwilling, Unprepared' To Attack Lebanon & Deal With Hezbollah Despite US Pressure

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syria-unwilling-unprepared-attack-lebanon-deal-hezbollah-despite-us-pressure

根据以色列公共广播公司(KAN)的报道,叙利亚总统艾哈迈德·沙拉(Ahmad al-Sharaa,曾为基地组织努斯拉阵线领导人)正抵制美国施压,拒绝在黎巴嫩对真主党发起军事攻势。据报道,沙拉担心攻击真主党会被视为服务于以色列利益,从而损害其地区合法性。 尽管特朗普政府积极推动由叙利亚主导解除真主党武装的行动,但该提议面临重大阻碍。据报道,安卡拉方面已建议不要采取此行动,担心这会无意中加强以色列的地位。此外,一些以色列官员对叙利亚干预的效果持怀疑态度,指出这可能会反过来巩固真主党的政治和军事地位。 在国内,沙拉否认了入侵的可能性,称其仅为“传言”,并强调其政府旨在缓和局势而非扩大战争。此外,伊拉克抵抗组织威胁称,如果叙利亚攻击黎巴嫩,他们将进行报复。在2024年巴沙尔·阿萨德政权倒台后,沙拉政府虽与华盛顿保持一致,但他仍在复杂的地区地缘政治中周旋,因为与真主党发生冲突可能会带来严重的地区反弹和国内动荡。

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原文

Via The Cradle

Syrian President and former Al-Qaeda chief Ahmad al-Sharaa is "unprepared and unwilling" to launch a military offensive against Lebanon despite growing US pressure, Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) reported days ago. 

KAN cited an informed Syrian source who said that Sharaa is "concerned" that an attack by Damascus against Hezbollah will be seen across the region as "serving" Israel's interests.

This could negatively impact Damascus’s "legitimacy." For now, the self-appointed Syrian president is ruling out an attack against Lebanon and its resistance forces unless Israel decides to pull its forces out of Syria, the report states. 

Israel has rejected withdrawal from both Syria and Lebanon. KAN also said that Turkey – a longtime backer of Sharaa since his days as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, founder and leader of Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front – has urged Damascus against such an incursion. 

Ankara is reportedly concerned that a Syrian assault on Lebanon would "embolden" Tel Aviv and "strengthen" its position. 

"Trump proposed a framework in which the Syrian military would play a central role in a future effort to disarm Hezbollah," i24 reported on Wednesday.

Lebanese authorities reportedly felt uneasy about the idea during recent US-backed direct talks with Israeli officials, which have taken place despite Lebanon’s legal restrictions.

Additionally, Israeli authorities are reportedly concerned about the effectiveness of a Syrian attack on Hezbollah. 

"Some of the arrangements currently under discussion could ultimately strengthen Hezbollah politically and militarily rather than diminish its influence,” i24 reported.

Sharaa said earlier this week that talk of a Syrian incursion into Lebanon was a “rumor.” “Syria's approach aims to end the war in Lebanon, not to expand it or get involved,” he stressed. 

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Syria to attack Hezbollah.

Iraqi resistance groups allied with Hezbollah have cautioned the Syrian government and its forces that they will act if Damascus initiates an attack on Lebanon. 

Syria experienced a significant geopolitical change following the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, as Sharaa’s government aligned with Washington and engaged in discussions with Israel. 

The US has largely lifted sanctions on Syria and called Damascus a “partner” in the global fight against ISIS — overlooking Sharaa’s past as an Al-Qaeda leader and earlier as deputy to ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Hezbollah fought in Syria for years with the former government, helping recapture areas from extremist groups like Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham, and others considered by the west as the “Syrian opposition.”

The Nusra Front, led by Sharaa, was rebranded into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and ended up toppling Assad’s government in 2024. HTS and other extremist factions with links to ISIS currently dominate what has become the new Syrian Defense Ministry and military.

ISIS vs. Hezbollah sectarian war 2.0?...

Tom Barrack, US special envoy to Syria and Iraq, threatened Lebanon last year with a Syrian incursion, and said Damascus would “actively assist us in confronting and dismantling … Hezbollah.”

He also said Syria viewed Lebanon as its “beach resort” and would carry out an assault against the country unless Hezbollah is disarmed.

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