After roping President Trump into breaking a core campaign promise, watching the United States expend resources and risk American lives to attack Iran, and then watching Trump take steps to end the war via MOU - Israelis are livid because the US didn't commit to full-on decimation to celebrate America's 250th, and say Iran came out ahead.
According to a survey conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in partnership with the Agam Institute, 92.1% of Israelis believe Iran came out ahead in the conflict and the US-brokered deal that followed.
Even among voters loyal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative bloc, 93.1% said Iran won. 82.9% of respondents said the six-week military campaign against Iran left Israel's long-term security weaker, not stronger. Another 86% hold a negative view of both the way the fighting ended and the way Washington negotiated the subsequent deal without meaningful Israeli input. Nearly 88% of Israelis believe their country either fell short of its war aims entirely or achieved only partial success, despite the stated objectives being nothing less than dismantling Iran's nuclear program, neutering its missile arsenal, and toppling the regime in Tehran. Those were the goals. None of them, by the public's own assessment, were fully met.
Netanyahu has tried to project confidence in the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding anyway. At a press conference Monday, he insisted Iran will never possess nuclear weapons "as long as I am prime minister of Israel." As we noted on Tuesday, hardline Israeli politicians are livid over the Iran deal, and want Netanyahu out so they can do 'real regime change.'
"With an agreement or without an agreement, Iran will not have nuclear weapons - not today and not tomorrow," he said, calling the mission his "life's mission." He has also maintained that the nuclear threat from Iran was an "immediate danger" that Israel removed "together with our American friends."
Either way, Israelis aren't buying it. 72.5% of respondents reject Netanyahu's claim that Israel secured major gains and eliminated an existential threat. Only 26.5% rate his handling of the war as "good" or "excellent," while 56.4% call it "failed" or "poor." His personal approval as prime minister has collapsed from 40.5% in early March to 29.4% in June, a fifteen-point swing in roughly three months.
And of course, there's Trump... with 69.1% of respondents rated his handling of the war and the resulting deal as "failed" or "poor," against just 10.8% who called it "good" or "excellent." Quite the change in sentiment from his 2024 election win...
Despite the widespread belief that the Iran campaign backfired, 48.2% of Israelis say their country should renew major military action against Hezbollah, including strikes in Beirut, even if that means clashing with Trump, who has made clear he wants the fighting in Lebanon to stop. Only 20.9% oppose that course, with the remaining 30.9% undecided. Israelis appear simultaneously convinced the last war was mishandled and eager for the next one.
Just 12.2% of respondents believe Israel achieved most of the stated goals against Hamas and Hezbollah following the October 7, 2023 attacks while 61.3% say Israel achieved none of them, and 26.5% say only some were met.
Across the Atlantic, the reception looks entirely different. A Quantus national poll of 1,000 likely US voters found 43% strongly approve and another 13% somewhat approve of the preliminary US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Combined disapproval sits at just 13%.
The Trump administration has been trying to respond to criticism of the deal, while Israeli cabinet members are talking mad shit about Trump - to the point where VP JD Vance came very close to asking if they've even said 'pwease' or 'thank you.'
Vance defended the MOU during Thursday's White House briefing, pushing back on what he said was misleading media coverage. “The simple fact is that the only way the Iranians get any of those resources - not a single penny, by the way, from the United States of America under any circumstances - but the only way that they would ever get any benefit of the bargain is if they comply fully, and change their behavior," Vance said of Iran, adding that Tehran's military and nuclear program "is still destroyed" if Iran refuses to change course. He also said that compliance would bring "a transformative relationship with the Middle East."
The Hebrew University-Agam Institute survey was conducted June 17–20, using a weighted sample of 3,644 Israelis aged 17 and over, designed to reflect the broader population, and has a maximum sampling error of just 2.2% at a 99% confidence level.
Maybe they'll just keep attacking Lebanon to scuttle the peace deal?